Sport Picks
Follonica Gavorrano vs San Donato Tavarnelle - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 
Match Events
71'
71'
Bernardini G.
86'
86'
Mignani C.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
45%
35%
20%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
45%
/ Medium Confidence
- San Donato Tavarnelle haven't matched Follonica Gavorrano's recent run of results.
- Follonica Gavorrano are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%
San Donato Tavarnelle Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Follonica Gavorrano | San Donato Tavarnelle |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 7 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 1.14 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 20, 2026 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Follonica Gavorrano
0:2
Feb 15, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Follonica Gavorrano
1:1
Mar 30, 2025 Serie D - Group E
San Donato Tavarnelle vs Follonica Gavorrano
0:1
Nov 17, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Follonica Gavorrano vs San Donato Tavarnelle
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Follonica Gavorrano Compare
Top Goalscorer Bernardini G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
San Donato Tavarnelle Compare
Top Goalscorer Mignani C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Follonica Gavorrano 77 / 100
San Donato Tavarnelle 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Follonica Gavorrano San Donato Tavarnelle
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Follonica Gavorrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Follonica Gavorrano stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Follonica Gavorrano scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
San Donato Tavarnelle has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Follonica Gavorrano VS San Donato Tavarnelle
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Follonica Gavorrano
(Home) 04 Oct
Flaminia
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1 Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1 Sasso Marconi
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0 Grassina
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2 Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 2 Tau
Page 1 of 3
San Donato Tavarnelle
(Away) 04 Oct
San Donato Tavarnelle
1 : 1 Mezzolara
27 Sept
Flaminia
2 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
13 Sept
Sasso Marconi
1 : 3 San Donato Tavarnelle
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Flaminia
2 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
16 Sept
Terranuova Traiana
1 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
13 Sept
Sasso Marconi
1 : 3 San Donato Tavarnelle
09 Aug
Sangiovannese
0 : 1 San Donato Tavarnelle
29 Jul
Grosseto
1 : 2 San Donato Tavarnelle
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
