Sport Picks
Follonica Gavorrano vs Valmontone
Italy
Coppa Italia Serie D 2025/2026 
Match Events
74'
74'
Roberti F.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with Valmontone advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
44%
15%
41%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Follonica Gavorrano
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Valmontone carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Follonica Gavorrano a 36% chance of winning this.
- Valmontone arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Valmontone, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Follonica Gavorrano Clean Sheet 68%
Valmontone Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Follonica Gavorrano | Valmontone |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 3 |
| Losses | 9 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.34 | 1.43 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.32 | 1.57 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Follonica Gavorrano vs Valmontone
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Follonica Gavorrano Compare
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.66
Valmontone Compare
Top Goalscorer Roberti F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.43
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Follonica Gavorrano 46 / 100
Valmontone 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Follonica Gavorrano Valmontone
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Follonica Gavorrano stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Follonica Gavorrano found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).
Valmontone let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Follonica Gavorrano VS Valmontone
1.5 Goals Scored 2.14
1 Goals Conceded 1.14
75% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 43%
Recent Form & Match History
Follonica Gavorrano
(Home) 27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1 Sasso Marconi
20 Sept
San Donato Tavarnelle
0 : 2 Follonica Gavorrano
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
12 Sept
Ternana
1 : 1 Follonica Gavorrano
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0 Grassina
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 1 Sasso Marconi
16 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 0 Ghiviborgo
06 Sept
Follonica Gavorrano
2 : 0 Grassina
10 May
Follonica Gavorrano
3 : 2 Camaiore Calcio
03 May
Follonica Gavorrano
1 : 2 Tau
Page 1 of 4
Valmontone
(Away) 03 May
Real Monterotondo
0 : 5 Valmontone
26 Apr
Valmontone
0 : 1 Sarrabus Ogliastra
19 Apr
Cassino
0 : 2 Valmontone
12 Apr
Valmontone
3 : 2 Montespaccato
02 Apr
Budoni Calcio
2 : 3 Valmontone
Page 1 of 6
03 May
Real Monterotondo
0 : 5 Valmontone
19 Apr
Cassino
0 : 2 Valmontone
02 Apr
Budoni Calcio
2 : 3 Valmontone
22 Mar
Nocerina
1 : 1 Valmontone
01 Mar
Albalonga
2 : 0 Valmontone
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0
