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Fortaleza vs Ferroviario

Brazil Brazil

Cearense Castelão, Fortaleza
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Lucas Sasha
Assist: GB
26'
Pedro Gomes
45'
Leo Paraiso

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. This leg finished 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Fortaleza
30%
Draws
27%
Ferroviario
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fortaleza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Fortaleza have won more games recently than Ferroviario.
  • 43% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Fortaleza have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Fortaleza, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Fortaleza have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Fortaleza Clean Sheet 68%
Ferroviario Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortaleza Ferroviario
Matches Played 36 30
Wins 18 13
Draws 9 9
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.28 1.23
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 25, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Ferroviario vs Fortaleza
0:1
Feb 21, 2026 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Ferroviario
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 Cearense
Ferroviario vs Fortaleza
0:2
Jan 11, 2026 Cearense
Ferroviario vs Fortaleza
0:0
Mar 8, 2025 Cearense
Fortaleza vs Ferroviario
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fortaleza Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Sasha
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pochettino T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Ferroviario Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortaleza 41 / 100
Ferroviario 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortaleza Ferroviario

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fortaleza Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fortaleza found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (36 games).

Fortaleza has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Ferroviario's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Scoring Trends

Fortaleza VS Ferroviario
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
50% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortaleza

(Home)
27 Sept
Fortaleza
2 : 2
Athletic Club
20 Sept
Londrina
1 : 2
Fortaleza
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
09 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 0
Avai
05 Sept
Goias
0 : 1
Fortaleza
Page 1 of 8

Ferroviario

(Away)
26 Jul
Ferroviario
1 : 2
Goiatuba EC
18 Jul
Goiatuba EC
3 : 0
Ferroviario
12 Jul
Ferroviario
3 : 0
Imperatriz
04 Jul
Imperatriz
1 : 1
Ferroviario
28 Jun
Ferroviario
2 : 0
Central SC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Ferroviario 0
Fortaleza 4
Floresta EC 0
Ceara 7
Final
Fortaleza 3
Ceara 2
Ferroviario 1
Floresta EC 0