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Fortuna Chemnitz vs FC Gera 03 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012
Sat, Feb 18, 2012
VS
12:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fortuna Chemnitz host FC Gera 03 in the Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Fortuna Chemnitz at 1.19 goals for, 2.29 against; FC Gera 03 at 0.81 for, 2.88 against. Head-to-head, Fortuna Chemnitz have won 0 to FC Gera 03's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on Feb 18, 2012, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.04 - 1.56) back Fortuna Chemnitz to edge this. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Fortuna Chemnitz
15%
Draws
34%
FC Gera 03
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fortuna Chemnitz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

34% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fortuna Chemnitz lately — more wins on the board than FC Gera 03.
  • FC Gera 03 are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Oberliga NOFV- Süd 2011/2012 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Fortuna Chemnitz Clean Sheet 15%
FC Gera 03 Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fortuna Chemnitz FC Gera 03
Matches Played 31 16
Wins 7 2
Draws 8 2
Losses 16 12
Goals Scored 1.19 0.81
Goals Conceded 2.29 2.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2012 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Fortuna Chemnitz vs FC Gera 03
0:0
Aug 21, 2011 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
FC Gera 03 vs Fortuna Chemnitz
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fortuna Chemnitz 19 / 100
FC Gera 03 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fortuna Chemnitz FC Gera 03

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Gera 03 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fortuna Chemnitz scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

FC Gera 03 let in goals in 100% of their last 16 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Difficult form: FC Gera 03 registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fortuna Chemnitz VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
2.13 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fortuna Chemnitz

(Home)
09 Jun
Aue II
5 : 1
Fortuna Chemnitz
05 Jun
Fortuna Chemnitz
2 : 5
Chemnitzer II
25 May
Fortuna Chemnitz
3 : 4
Hallescher II
18 May
Gotha
1 : 2
Fortuna Chemnitz
15 May
Fortuna Chemnitz
2 : 1
Laubsdorf
Page 1 of 7

FC Gera 03

(Away)
10 Dec
Dresden II
3 : 0
FC Gera 03
03 Dec
Piesteritz
1 : 2
FC Gera 03
27 Nov
FC Gera 03
2 : 2
Jena II
19 Nov
FC Gera 03
1 : 2
Erfurt II
04 Nov
Lokomotive Leipzig
6 : 0
FC Gera 03
Page 1 of 4

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zwickau 26 18 6 2 71:20 60
2 Auerbach 26 15 7 4 47:30 52
3 Erfurt II 26 14 4 8 40:35 46
4 Dresden II 26 12 8 6 51:36 44
5 Jena II 26 12 8 6 39:32 44
6 Lokomotive Leipzig 26 13 3 10 40:27 42
7 Chemnitzer II 26 11 6 9 39:28 39
8 Fortuna Chemnitz 26 9 10 7 47:48 37
9 Bautzen 26 9 9 8 34:30 36
10 Aue II 26 9 4 13 43:42 31
11 Luckenwalde 26 7 3 16 38:55 24
12 Gotha 26 3 9 14 26:65 18
13 Piesteritz 26 4 4 18 27:63 16
14 Halle 26 4 3 19 22:53 15
15 FC Gera 03 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
16 Borea Dresden 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Regionalliga North 2012/2013 (Main)
Promotion - Regionalliga North 2012/2013 (Main)