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Fossombrone vs Ostiamare

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone Logo

Fossombrone

0 - 1
FT
Ostiamare Logo

Ostiamare

Our Tip

Match Events

84' Event
Ceccarelli T.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F game between Fossombrone and Ostiamare finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ostiamare.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Fossombrone
15%
Draws
36%
Ostiamare
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fossombrone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Ostiamare come out ahead of Fossombrone on wins alone.
  • Fossombrone are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Fossombrone Clean Sheet 68%
Ostiamare Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fossombrone Ostiamare
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 10 19
Draws 7 7
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 0.75 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Fossombrone vs Ostiamare
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Ostiamare vs Fossombrone
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fossombrone 59 / 100
Ostiamare 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fossombrone Ostiamare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FOS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Ostiamare registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Fossombrone's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Ostiamare let in goals in 59% of their last 32 matches.

Scoring Trends

Fossombrone VS Ostiamare
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fossombrone

(Home)
01 Aug
Cesena
3 : 0
Fossombrone
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0
Fossombrone
26 Apr
Fossombrone
3 : 1
Castelfidardo
19 Apr
Atletico Ascoli
1 : 1
Fossombrone
12 Apr
Fossombrone
1 : 2
Ancona
Page 1 of 6

Ostiamare

(Away)
05 Aug
Lazio
4 : 0
Ostiamare
26 Jul
Ostiamare
0 : 2
Benevento
13 May
Grosseto
2 : 3
Ostiamare
10 May
Ostiamare
0 : 2
Desenzano Calvina
03 May
Giulianova
4 : 0
Ostiamare
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ostiamare 34 24 7 3 65:25 79
2 Ancona 34 23 7 4 59:22 76
3 Teramo 34 21 11 2 65:29 74
4 Atletico Ascoli 34 14 13 7 55:35 55
5 Notaresco Calcio 34 13 12 9 43:31 51
6 Aquila Calcio 34 14 9 11 53:44 51
7 Giulianova 34 11 16 7 40:31 49
8 Vigor Senigallia 34 12 13 9 45:40 49
9 Fossombrone 34 11 11 12 28:34 44
10 Unipomezia 34 10 12 12 43:42 42
11 Termoli 34 8 15 11 27:30 39
12 Maceratese 34 11 5 18 43:49 38
13 AS Sora 34 9 11 14 40:50 38
14 Recanatese 34 8 8 18 39:57 32
15 San Marino Calcio 34 8 7 19 33:61 31
16 Calcio Chieti 34 8 11 15 31:55 24
17 Castelfidardo 34 6 5 23 30:65 23
18 Sammaurese 34 5 7 22 30:69 20
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F (Play Out)