Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Francavilla vs Afragolese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group H 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Visconti G.
49' Event
Gentile C.

AI Match Summary

Francavilla in this Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Francavilla.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Francavilla
30%
Draws
47%
Afragolese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Afragolese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Francavilla have won more games recently than Afragolese.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 27%
Afragolese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Francavilla Afragolese
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 12 10
Draws 6 12
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.24 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.24 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Afragolese
2:0
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Francavilla
1:2
Jan 22, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Afragolese vs Francavilla
3:2
Sep 18, 2022 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Afragolese
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Francavilla Compare

Top Goalscorer Visconti G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gentile C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Afragolese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Francavilla 38 / 100
Afragolese 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Francavilla Afragolese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Afragolese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.25 goals.

Francavilla found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (33 games).

Afragolese's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Francavilla went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Francavilla VS Afragolese
1.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Francavilla

(Home)
27 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1
Brindisi
20 Sept
Melfi
2 : 1
Francavilla
16 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1
Palmese 1914
13 Sept
Bisceglie
2 : 1
Francavilla
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0
Ischia
Page 1 of 7

Afragolese

(Away)
27 Sept
Citta di Anagni
4 : 0
Afragolese
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
Paganese
0 : 0
Afragolese
12 Sept
Afragolese
1 : 1
Sarnese
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barletta 34 20 10 4 54:20 70
2 Martina Calcio 34 18 8 8 47:30 62
3 Citta di Fasano 34 18 8 8 51:35 62
4 Paganese 34 17 7 10 36:32 58
5 A.C.D. Nardo 34 14 13 7 40:27 55
6 Gravina 34 16 7 11 50:40 55
7 Afragolese 34 13 10 11 45:46 49
8 Fidelis Andria 34 13 9 12 35:28 48
9 Virtus Francavilla 34 12 12 10 45:40 48
10 Real Normanna 34 10 13 11 27:26 43
11 Francavilla 34 11 10 13 39:38 43
12 Manfredonia 34 11 10 13 34:39 43
13 Sarnese 34 9 14 11 51:49 41
14 SS Nola 1925 34 11 8 15 42:50 41
15 Heraclea 34 10 8 16 31:39 38
16 Pompei 34 9 7 18 26:38 34
17 Ferrandina 34 7 9 18 21:43 30
18 Acerrana 34 3 5 26 20:74 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group H 2025/2026 (Play Out)