Sport Picks
Match Events
71'
71'
Pio Carrozza G.
AI Match Summary
Francavilla in this Coppa Italia Serie D 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
15%
65%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Nocerina
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
65%
/ High Confidence
- Francavilla have won more games recently than Nocerina.
- Win probability leans Nocerina's way, sitting at 50%.
- Francavilla have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Francavilla, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Francavilla Clean Sheet 20%
Nocerina Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Francavilla | Nocerina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 8 |
| Draws | 5 | 13 |
| Losses | 14 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.14 | 1.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 3, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Francavilla vs Nocerina
1:0
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Nocerina
0:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Francavilla
0:0
May 14, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Nocerina vs Francavilla
2:1
Jan 15, 2023 Serie D - Group H
Francavilla vs Nocerina
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Francavilla Compare
Top Goalscorer Pio Carrozza G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56
Nocerina Compare
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Francavilla 24 / 100
Nocerina 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Francavilla Nocerina
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Nocerina Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Francavilla scored in 66% of their last 29 games.
Defensive concern: Nocerina conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Francavilla stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Francavilla VS Nocerina
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Francavilla
(Home) 27 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1 Brindisi
20 Sept
Melfi
2 : 1 Francavilla
16 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1 Palmese 1914
13 Sept
Bisceglie
2 : 1 Francavilla
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0 Ischia
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27 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1 Brindisi
16 Sept
Francavilla
0 : 1 Palmese 1914
06 Sept
Francavilla
1 : 0 Ischia
03 May
Francavilla
2 : 0 Afragolese
12 Apr
Francavilla
4 : 1 Acerrana
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Nocerina
(Away) 27 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 0 Palmese 1914
20 Sept
Bisceglie
3 : 1 Nocerina
16 Sept
Nocerina
3 : 2 Ischia
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2 Nocerina
06 Sept
Nocerina
2 : 1 Ebolitana
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20 Sept
Bisceglie
3 : 1 Nocerina
12 Sept
Manfredonia
2 : 2 Nocerina
26 Apr
Monastir
1 : 0 Nocerina
12 Apr
Atl. Lodigiani
0 : 0 Nocerina
29 Mar
Sarrabus Ogliastra
0 : 0 Nocerina
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Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Asti Calcio 2
Chisola 0
Ligorna 1
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 3
Sestri Levante 0
Tau 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
SCD Progresso 1
Pavia 2
Sant'Angelo 0
Prato 2
Montevarchi 1
Correggese 2
Imolese 1
Sondrio 1
Breno 0
Folgore Caratese 2
Club Milano 3
AC Milan U23 2
Varesina 3
Brusaporto 0
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Chievo 0
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Vigasio 2
Cjarlins Muzane 1
Brian Lignano 2
Luparense FC 0
Mestre 1
Fossombrone 0
Ancona 1
Foligno 0
Atletico Ascoli 2
Orvietana 2
Siena 0
Follonica Gavorrano 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Termoli 0
Albalonga 2
Aquila Calcio 1
Grosseto 0
Unipomezia 1
Trastevere Calcio 2
Budoni Calcio 0
Martina Calcio 3
Sarnese 1
Ferrandina 2
Francavilla 3
A.C. Savoia 2
Paganese 1
Citta di Fasano 3
Gravina 0
Nocerina 4
Gelbison 2
Sambiase 0
Reggina 1
Castrumfavara 3
Igea Virtus 1
Enna 0
Sancataldese 2
1/16-finals
Asti Calcio 3
NovaRomentin 2
Vado 0
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 2
Pavia 1
Prato 1
Correggese 4
Sondrio 0
Club Milano 3
Varesina 4
Ciserano-Bergamo 1
Rovato Vertovese 1
Este 3
Brian Lignano 0
Mestre 1
Ancona 1
Atletico Ascoli 0
Orvietana 0
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 2
Albalonga 1
Unipomezia 3
Trastevere Calcio 1
Martina Calcio 1
Francavilla 2
A.C. Savoia 3
Citta di Fasano 4
Nocerina 3
Reggina 2
Castrumfavara 3
Sancataldese 2
1/8-finals
Asti Calcio 1
Pistoiese 3
Piacenza 0
Correggese 1
Club Milano 1
Varesina 0
Este 1
Mestre 2
Ancona 2
Valmontone 1
Notaresco Calcio 0
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 3
Citta di Fasano 2
Nocerina 2
Castrumfavara 0
Quarter-finals
Pistoiese 2
Correggese 0
Club Milano 1
Mestre 0
Ancona 2
Unipomezia 1
Francavilla 1
Nocerina 0
Semi-finals
Pistoiese 3
Club Milano 1
Ancona 2
Francavilla 1
Final
Pistoiese 3
Ancona 0
