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Frei Paulistano vs Boca Junior - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Sergipano 2 2024 game between Frei Paulistano and Boca Junior finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Frei Paulistano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Frei Paulistano
15%
Draws
0%
Boca Junior
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Frei Paulistano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Frei Paulistano come out ahead of Boca Junior on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Frei Paulistano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2 2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Frei Paulistano here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.6%
Frei Paulistano Clean Sheet 68%
Boca Junior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Frei Paulistano Boca Junior
Matches Played 34 35
Wins 18 11
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 20
Goals Scored 1.71 1.2
Goals Conceded 0.85 2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 11, 2025 Sergipano 2
Frei Paulistano vs Boca Junior
5:1
Oct 13, 2024 Sergipano 2
Frei Paulistano vs Boca Junior
1:0
Oct 3, 2024 Sergipano 2
Boca Junior vs Frei Paulistano
0:2
Sep 1, 2024 Sergipano 2
Frei Paulistano vs Boca Junior
2:1
Mar 19, 2022 Sergipano
Frei Paulistano vs Boca Junior
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Frei Paulistano 95 / 100
Boca Junior 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Frei Paulistano Boca Junior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Frei Paulistano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Boca Junior conceded in 86% of 35 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Boca Junior's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Frei Paulistano found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (34 games).

Scoring Trends

Frei Paulistano VS Boca Junior
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 3.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Frei Paulistano

(Home)
01 Nov
Flamengo SE
0 : 4
Frei Paulistano
26 Oct
Atletico Central
0 : 1
Frei Paulistano
18 Oct
Frei Paulistano
0 : 1
Desportiva Aracaju
15 Oct
Independente SE
0 : 3
Frei Paulistano
11 Oct
Frei Paulistano
5 : 1
Boca Junior
Page 1 of 7

Boca Junior

(Away)
01 Nov
Boca Junior
0 : 3
Olimpico EC
25 Oct
Boca Junior
0 : 3
Caninde
18 Oct
America de Pedrinhas
1 : 0
Boca Junior
15 Oct
Boca Junior
0 : 3
Atletico Gloriense
11 Oct
Frei Paulistano
5 : 1
Boca Junior
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Guarany SE 5 4 1 0 14:2 13
2 America de Pedrinhas 5 4 1 0 13:4 13
3 Desportiva Aracaju 5 4 0 1 16:5 12
4 Frei Paulistano 5 2 2 1 8:6 8
5 Flamengo SE 5 0 1 4 3:16 1
Promotion - Sergipano 2 2024 (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Barra SE 5 2 2 1 7:6 8
2 Atletico Central 5 1 1 3 5:7 4
3 Independente SE 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
4 Boca Junior 5 1 1 3 7:12 4
5 Caninde 5 1 0 4 8:20 3
Promotion - Sergipano 2 2024 (Play Offs)