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Frei Paulistano vs Desportiva Aracaju

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 2
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Desportiva Aracaju in this Sergipano 2 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Desportiva Aracaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Frei Paulistano
6%
Draws
4%
Desportiva Aracaju
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Frei Paulistano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Frei Paulistano haven't matched Desportiva Aracaju's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Frei Paulistano's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Sergipano 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Frei Paulistano Clean Sheet 20%
Desportiva Aracaju Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Frei Paulistano Desportiva Aracaju
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 17 18
Draws 5 4
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 2.17 1.75
Goals Conceded 0.67 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.17 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.67 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 18, 2025 Sergipano 2
Frei Paulistano vs Desportiva Aracaju
0:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Frei Paulistano 85 / 100
Desportiva Aracaju 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Frei Paulistano Desportiva Aracaju

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FRE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Frei Paulistano found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (33 games).

Frei Paulistano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Desportiva Aracaju registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Desportiva Aracaju let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Frei Paulistano VS Desportiva Aracaju
2.17 Goals Scored 1.75
0.67 Goals Conceded 0.63
67% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Desportiva Aracaju981026:325
2Atletico Gloriense971122:222
3Olimpico EC971122:522
4Frei Paulistano951320:916
5Caninde941414:2013
6America de Pedrinhas93249:1511
7Atletico Central92167:177
8Flamengo SE92078:166
9Independente SE91266:235
10Boca Junior91084:280