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Freiburg vs Genk

Europe Europe

Europa League 2025/2026 Europa-Park Stadion
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Ginter M.
Assist: Grifo V.
25' Event
Matanovic I.
Assist: Ginter M.
30'
Matanovic I.

AI Match Summary

The Europa League 2025/2026 game between Freiburg and Genk finished 5-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Freiburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Freiburg
44%
Draws
20%
Genk
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Genk come out ahead of Freiburg on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Freiburg Clean Sheet 12%
Genk Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freiburg Genk
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 15
Draws 3 7
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Europa League
Freiburg vs Genk
5:1
Mar 12, 2026 Europa League
Genk vs Freiburg
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freiburg Compare

Top Goalscorer Ginter M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matanovic I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Genk Compare

Top Goalscorer Smets M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freiburg 35 / 100
Genk 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freiburg Genk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GNK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Freiburg scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Genk has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Freiburg stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Freiburg VS Genk
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Ludogorets2
Ferencvaros3
Braga-
TBD-
Panathinaikos4
Plzen3
Betis-
TBD-
Din. Zagreb4
Genk6
Freiburg-
TBD-
PAOK1
Celta Vigo3
Lyon-
TBD-
Celtic2
VfB Stuttgart4
FC Porto-
TBD-
Fenerbahce2
Nottingham4
Midtjylland-
TBD-
Brann0
Bologna2
AS Roma-
TBD-
Lille2
Crvena zvezda1
Aston Villa-
TBD-
1/8-finals
Ferencvaros2
Braga4
Panathinaikos1
Betis4
Genk2
Freiburg5
Celta Vigo3
Lyon1
VfB Stuttgart1
FC Porto4
Nottingham3
Midtjylland2
Bologna5
AS Roma4
Lille0
Aston Villa3
Quarter-finals
Braga5
Betis3
Freiburg6
Celta Vigo1
FC Porto1
Nottingham2
Bologna1
Aston Villa7
Semi-finals
Braga3
Freiburg4
Nottingham1
Aston Villa4
Final
Freiburg0
Aston Villa3