Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Freital vs Motor Marienberg

Germany Germany

Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Wessely W.

AI Match Summary

Freital in this Oberliga NOFV- Sud 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Freital.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Freital
35%
Draws
26%
Motor Marienberg
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Freital

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Freital lately — more wins on the board than Motor Marienberg.
  • Model gives Freital a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Freital Clean Sheet 68%
Motor Marienberg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Freital Motor Marienberg
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 5 4
Losses 10 20
Goals Scored 1.68 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.16 3.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2024 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Freital vs Motor Marienberg
1:0
Nov 4, 2023 Oberliga NOFV- Sud
Motor Marienberg vs Freital
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Freital Compare

Top Goalscorer Wessely W.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Motor Marienberg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Freital 95 / 100
Motor Marienberg 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Freital Motor Marienberg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Freital Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Freital scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Motor Marienberg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Freital stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Freital VS -
1.5 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Freital

(Home)
26 Sept
Einheit Wernigerode
3 : 3
Freital
19 Sept
Freital
2 : 2
Auerbach
13 Sept
Einheit Rudolstadt
1 : 1
Freital
29 Aug
Freital
1 : 3
Eilenburg
16 Aug
Freital
4 : 2
1.FC Frankfurt
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Motor Marienberg

(Away)
08 Jun
Motor Marienberg
1 : 1
Einheit Wernigerode
02 Jun
Grimma
6 : 3
Motor Marienberg
18 May
Motor Marienberg
3 : 4
Halberstadt
11 May
Freital
1 : 0
Motor Marienberg
04 May
Motor Marienberg
2 : 1
Bischofswerdaer
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bischofswerdaer 30 21 7 2 78:33 70
2 Plauen 30 22 4 4 63:19 70
3 Halberstadt 30 18 6 6 71:45 60
4 Magdeburg II 30 17 4 9 70:43 55
5 Auerbach 30 17 4 9 64:38 55
6 Krieschow 30 14 4 12 59:52 46
7 Sandersdorf 30 13 3 14 49:46 42
8 Freital 30 12 4 14 43:46 40
9 Einheit Wernigerode 30 10 6 14 54:67 36
10 Bautzen 30 9 8 13 45:52 35
11 Einheit Rudolstadt 30 10 4 16 40:53 34
12 Grimma 30 9 5 16 40:63 32
13 Ludwigsfelder 30 8 7 15 39:50 31
14 Halle 30 8 6 16 47:62 30
15 Motor Marienberg 30 6 4 20 33:93 22
16 Arnstadt 30 5 6 19 35:68 21
Promotion - Regionalliga Nordost 2024/2025 (Main)