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Frosinone vs Padova

Italy Italy

Serie B 2025/2026 Stadio Benito Stirpe, Frosinone
Our Tip

Match Events

25' Event
Raimondo A.
29' Event
Gelli F.
Assist: Monterisi I.
46'
Sub
Belli F. In: Capelli A.
Out: Belli F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie B 2025/2026 game between Frosinone and Padova finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Frosinone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Frosinone
30%
Draws
33%
Padova
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Frosinone

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Frosinone come out ahead of Padova on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on Frosinone taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Frosinone Clean Sheet 20%
Padova Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Frosinone Padova
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 17 10
Draws 10 6
Losses 2 13
Goals Scored 1.93 1.17
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2026 Serie B
Frosinone vs Padova
2:0
Sep 13, 2025 Serie B
Padova vs Frosinone
0:1
Sep 30, 2020 Coppa Italia
Frosinone vs Padova
1:3
Apr 16, 2011 Serie B
Frosinone vs Padova
1:1
Nov 13, 2010 Serie B
Padova vs Frosinone
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Frosinone Compare

Top Goalscorer Raimondo A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gelli F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Padova Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Frosinone 49 / 100
Padova 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Frosinone Padova

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FRO Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Frosinone scored in 100% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Padova conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Frosinone went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Frosinone VS Padova
2 Goals Scored 1.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Frosinone

(Home)
09 Aug
Frosinone
1 : 2
Lazio
01 Aug
Frosinone
2 : 2
Benevento
29 Jul
Frosinone
1 : 1
Sambenedettese
26 Jul
Frosinone
1 : 0
Ascoli
22 Jul
Frosinone
1 : 0
Frosinone U20
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Padova

(Away)
07 Aug
Monza
3 : 3
Padova
01 Aug
Cittadella
0 : 2
Padova
25 Jul
Padova
1 : 3
Ospitaletto
22 Jul
Sassuolo
4 : 1
Padova
08 May
Cesena
3 : 4
Padova
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Venezia 38 24 10 4 77:31 82
2 Frosinone 38 23 12 3 76:34 81
3 Monza 38 22 10 6 61:32 76
4 Palermo 38 20 12 6 61:33 72
5 Catanzaro 38 15 14 9 62:51 59
6 Modena 38 15 10 13 49:36 55
7 Juve Stabia 38 11 18 9 44:45 51
8 Avellino 38 13 10 15 43:55 49
9 Mantova 38 13 7 18 45:57 46
10 Padova 38 12 10 16 39:49 46
11 Cesena 38 12 10 16 45:56 46
12 Carrarese 38 10 14 14 47:52 44
13 Sampdoria 38 11 11 16 35:48 44
14 Entella 38 10 12 16 36:51 42
15 Empoli 38 9 14 15 47:54 41
16 Sudtirol 38 8 17 13 38:48 41
17 Bari 38 10 10 18 38:60 40
18 Reggiana 38 9 10 19 36:56 37
19 Spezia 38 8 11 19 43:59 35
20 Pescara 38 7 14 17 51:66 35
Promotion - Serie A (Main)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie B 2025/2026 (Play Out)