Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fulgens Foligno vs Orvietana

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Panattoni M.
(Penalty)
45' Event
Calderini E.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Fabri F.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-2, with Orvietana advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Fulgens Foligno
20%
Draws
47%
Orvietana
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Orvietana

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fulgens Foligno come out ahead of Orvietana on wins alone.
  • 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Fulgens Foligno have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Orvietana, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Orvietana here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Fulgens Foligno Clean Sheet 22%
Orvietana Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fulgens Foligno Orvietana
Matches Played 30 33
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 7 12
Goals Scored 1.83 1
Goals Conceded 1.33 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.05
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fulgens Foligno vs Orvietana
1:2
Apr 6, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Fulgens Foligno vs Orvietana
1:2
Nov 24, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Orvietana vs Fulgens Foligno
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fulgens Foligno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Orvietana Compare

Top Goalscorer Fabri F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.58

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fulgens Foligno 37 / 100
Orvietana 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fulgens Foligno Orvietana

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Orvietana Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fulgens Foligno scored in 97% of their last 30 outings.

Orvietana has conceded goals in 61% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Fulgens Foligno remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Orvietana
0 Goals Scored 1
0 Goals Conceded 1.38
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fulgens Foligno

(Home)
11 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 2
Orvietana
04 May
Fulgens Foligno
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
27 Apr
Livorno
2 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
17 Apr
Fulgens Foligno
2 : 1
Seravezza Pozzi
12 Apr
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1
Fulgens Foligno
Page 1 of 6

Orvietana

(Away)
10 May
Orvietana
1 : 0
Poggibonsi
03 May
Terranuova Traiana
0 : 0
Orvietana
26 Apr
Orvietana
3 : 2
Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro
19 Apr
Follonica Gavorrano
0 : 1
Orvietana
12 Apr
Orvietana
0 : 1
Scandicci
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Fulgens Foligno 1
Orvietana 2
Seravezza Pozzi 1
Ghiviborgo 0
Final
Orvietana 1
Seravezza Pozzi 4