Sport Picks

Azerbaijan

Premier League Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu

Gabala

1 - 3

Neftci Baku

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Badalov E.

19'

Keita S.

(Penalty)

22'

Sambou B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neftci Baku in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftci Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Gabala

39%

Draws

31%

Neftci Baku

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Neftci Baku have won more games recently than Gabala.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
History favors Neftci Baku here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 13%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%

Gabala Clean Sheet 68%

Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gabala	Neftci Baku
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	16
Draws	5	6
Losses	15	8
Goals Scored	1.13	1.88
Goals Conceded	0.88	1.13
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Premier League

Gabala vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 59% - 47% Cards: 2 - 3

1:3

Feb 10, 2026 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Gabala

Possession: 54% - 55% Cards: 4 - 2

1:0

Oct 26, 2025 Premier League

Gabala vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 47% - 51% Cards: 1 - 4

0:2

Mar 29, 2024 Premier League

Gabala vs Neftci Baku

Possession: 53% - 45% Cards: 1 - 0

0:1

Jan 28, 2024 Premier League

Neftci Baku vs Gabala

Possession: 47% - 52% Cards: 2 - 4

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Neftci Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Sambou B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mammadov M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 41 / 100

Neftci Baku 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gabala Neftci Baku

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gabala found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Neftci Baku has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Gabala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Neftci Baku

1.13 Goals Scored 1.88

0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13

63% Over 1.5 88%

25% Over 2.5 75%

13% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sabah Baku	33	24	6	3	75:25	78
2	Qarabag Agdam	33	21	6	6	71:27	69
3	Turan	33	17	8	8	44:27	59
4	Neftci Baku	33	16	11	6	57:32	59
5	Zira FK	33	13	14	6	43:36	53
6	Araz PFK	33	13	7	13	44:58	46
7	SumQayit FK	33	12	5	16	45:49	41
8	Shamakhi	33	9	11	13	31:40	38
9	Imisli FK	33	7	13	13	23:43	34
10	Kapaz	33	8	3	22	25:61	27
11	Gabala	33	7	6	20	32:49	27
12	Karvan	33	3	6	24	23:66	15