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Gabala vs Sabah Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

54' Event
Aliyev K.
61'
Sub
Rashidov N. In: Manafov T.
Out: Rashidov N.
61'
Sub
Ahmadov E. In: Aliyev N.
Out: Ahmadov E.

AI Match Summary

Sabah Baku in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabah Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Gabala
39%
Draws
31%
Sabah Baku
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sabah Baku lately — more wins on the board than Gabala.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sabah Baku have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Gabala Clean Sheet 68%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Sabah Baku
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 10 24
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 3
Goals Scored 1.5 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.83 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 10, 2026 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Gabala
7:1
Mar 5, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Gabala vs Sabah Baku
3:4
Feb 16, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Feb 4, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabah Baku vs Gabala
0:0
Nov 3, 2025 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Gabala
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Sabah Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 41 / 100
Sabah Baku 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Sabah Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Attacking prowess: Gabala scored in 61% of their last 31 outings.

Sabah Baku let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.

Gabala went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Sabah Baku
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
0.83 Goals Conceded 0.88
83% Over 1.5 88%
33% Over 2.5 63%
17% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
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Sabah Baku

(Away)
28 Jul
KuPS
0 : 2
Sabah Baku
21 Jul
Sabah Baku
1 : 0
KuPS
14 Jul
TNS
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
07 Jul
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
TNS
02 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
4 : 1
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)