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Gabala vs Shamakhi

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Keita S.
11'
Agcabayov A.
12'
Mammadov O.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Gabala and Shamakhi finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gabala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Gabala
35%
Draws
45%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Shamakhi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Gabala's 1.22 goals per match outpaces what Shamakhi have produced (1.03).
  • Win probability leans Shamakhi's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Gabala Clean Sheet 20%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Shamakhi
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 11
Goals Scored 1.22 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 29, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
0:0
May 21, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
3:1
Jan 24, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Gabala
0:4
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
0:1
May 22, 2023 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Gabala
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Top Goalscorer Keita S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Massoumou D. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 20 / 100
Shamakhi 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamakhi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Shamakhi conceded in 63% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Gabala's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Solid form: Gabala remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Shamakhi
1 Goals Scored 0.88
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
12 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 0
Gabala
04 Sept
Gabala
2 : 1
Imisli FK
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1
Safa Baku
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Shamakhi

(Away)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)