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Gabala vs Shamakhi

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Qäbälä Şähär Stadionu, Gabala
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Keita S.
11'
Agcabayov A.
12'
Mammadov O.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Gabala and Shamakhi finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gabala.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Gabala
6%
Draws
4%
Shamakhi
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gabala

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Gabala's 0.88 goals per match outpaces what Shamakhi have produced (0.5).
  • Win probability leans Gabala's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Gabala Clean Sheet 20%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gabala Shamakhi
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 10 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.88 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 21, 2026 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
3:1
Jan 24, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Gabala
0:4
Oct 5, 2025 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
0:1
May 22, 2023 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Gabala
0:0
Mar 17, 2023 Premier League
Gabala vs Shamakhi
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabala Compare

Top Goalscorer Keita S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Massoumou D. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Shamakhi Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabala 85 / 100
Shamakhi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gabala Shamakhi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GAB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gabala found the back of the net in 61% of recent matches (31 games).

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Gabala stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Shamakhi has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gabala VS Shamakhi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabala

(Home)
28 May
Gabala
2 : 0
Mingachevir
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
15 May
Karvan
1 : 2
Gabala
09 May
Gabala
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
03 May
Zira FK
1 : 0
Gabala
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Shamakhi

(Away)
21 May
Gabala
3 : 1
Shamakhi
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Neftci Baku
3 : 0
Shamakhi
03 May
Shamakhi
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
26 Apr
Shamakhi
2 : 0
Kapaz
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)