Sport Picks

Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025 Stade Adrar, Agadir

Gabon

2 - 3

Mozambique

Our Tip

Match Events

34'

Amade A.

37'

Bangal F.

Assist: Catamo G.

39'

Ecuele Manga B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Mozambique advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Gabon

15%

Draws

42%

Mozambique

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gabon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence

Look at the last few games and Gabon come out ahead of Mozambique on wins alone.
43% — that's where the model lands on Gabon taking it.
Gabon have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor Gabon, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%

Gabon Clean Sheet 68%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Gabon	Mozambique
Matches Played	26	28
Wins	11	8
Draws	4	5
Losses	11	15
Goals Scored	1.54	0.96
Goals Conceded	1.58	1.75
Expected Goals (xG)	1.81	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 28, 2025 Africa Cup of Nations

Gabon vs Mozambique

2:3

Nov 14, 2015 World Championship

Gabon vs Mozambique

2:0

Nov 11, 2015 World Championship

Mozambique vs Gabon

1:0

Jan 6, 2010 Friendly International

Gabon vs Mozambique

2:0

Jan 16, 1993 World Championship

Mozambique vs Gabon

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gabon Compare

Top Goalscorer Aubameyang P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Moucketou-Moussounda A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.39

Avg xA / game 0.91

Mozambique Compare

Top Goalscorer Bangal F.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Diogo Calila

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gabon 77 / 100

Mozambique 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Gabon Mozambique

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gabon Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gabon found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (26 games).

Mozambique has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Mozambique has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Gabon VS Mozambique

1.13 Goals Scored 1

2 Goals Conceded 2.5

63% Over 1.5 75%

63% Over 2.5 75%

63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Gabon

(Home)

30 Mar

Trinidad & Tobago

2 : 3

Gabon

27 Mar

Uzbekistan

3 : 1

Gabon

31 Dec

Gabon

2 : 3

Ivory Coast

28 Dec

Gabon

2 : 3

Mozambique

24 Dec

Cameroon

1 : 0

Gabon

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Mozambique

(Away)

09 Jun

Indonesia

1 : 0

Mozambique

07 Jun

Oman

4 : 1

Mozambique

05 Jan

Nigeria

4 : 0

Mozambique

31 Dec

Mozambique

1 : 2

Cameroon

28 Dec

Gabon

2 : 3

Mozambique

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