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Gafanha vs Penalva do Castelo

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Gafanha Logo

Gafanha

2 - 2
FT
Penalva do Castelo Logo

Penalva do Castelo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Gafanha and Penalva do Castelo finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Gafanha
15%
Draws
12%
Penalva do Castelo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gafanha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Penalva do Castelo haven't matched Gafanha's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Gafanha a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Gafanha Clean Sheet 19%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gafanha Penalva do Castelo
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 3 7
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 1.23 0.7
Goals Conceded 2.1 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 10, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Gafanha vs Penalva do Castelo
2:2
Sep 2, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Gafanha
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gafanha 67 / 100
Penalva do Castelo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gafanha Penalva do Castelo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gafanha Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penalva do Castelo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.50 goals per match.

Gafanha scored in 65% of their last 31 games.

Penalva do Castelo lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gafanha VS Penalva do Castelo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gafanha

(Home)
12 May
Gafanha
0 : 4
SC Espinho
05 May
Amarante FC
2 : 1
Gafanha
28 Apr
Gafanha
2 : 1
Lusitano FCV
20 Apr
Gondomar
6 : 1
Gafanha
14 Apr
Gafanha
2 : 1
Meda
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Penalva do Castelo

(Away)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)