Sport Picks

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Gagra vs Spaeri

Georgia Georgia

Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Kentchadze N.
38'
Askurava T.
40'
Augusto

AI Match Summary

The Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga game between Gagra and Spaeri finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Gagra
35%
Draws
19%
Spaeri
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Gagra

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • Spaeri haven't matched Gagra's recent run of results.
  • Gagra are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Spaeri have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Gagra Clean Sheet 20%
Spaeri Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gagra Spaeri
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 5
Draws 11 10
Losses 9 14
Goals Scored 1.2 1.34
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 17, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
1:1
May 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:0
Mar 11, 2026 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Gagra vs Spaeri
0:3
Nov 5, 2024 Georgian Cup
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2
Dec 12, 2022 Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga
Spaeri vs Gagra
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gagra Compare

Top Goalscorer Mujiri D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Spaeri Compare

Top Goalscorer Chagunava N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gagra 58 / 100
Spaeri 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gagra Spaeri

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gagra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Spaeri conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Gagra found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Recent resilience: Gagra stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gagra VS Spaeri
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gagra

(Home)
19 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Meshakhte Tkibuli
14 Sept
Dinamo Tbilisi
4 : 0
Gagra
10 Sept
Gagra
1 : 1
Torpedo Kutaisi
05 Sept
Dila Gori
1 : 0
Gagra
31 Aug
Gagra
2 : 0
Iberia 1999
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Spaeri

(Away)
21 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 4
Dila Gori
13 Sept
Iberia 1999
1 : 0
Spaeri
09 Sept
Spaeri
1 : 1
FC Rustavi
05 Sept
Meshakhte Tkibuli
2 : 2
Spaeri
30 Aug
Dinamo Batumi
3 : 0
Spaeri
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 27 13 9 5 45:30 48
2 Dinamo Batumi 27 13 8 6 46:36 47
3 FC Rustavi 27 13 7 7 32:23 46
4 Iberia 1999 27 14 4 9 38:30 46
5 Dila Gori 27 12 4 11 38:30 40
6 Torpedo Kutaisi 27 9 9 9 43:34 36
7 Samgurali 27 9 5 13 38:52 32
8 Gagra 27 6 11 10 25:37 29
9 Spaeri 27 5 10 12 34:43 25
10 Meshakhte Tkibuli 27 2 11 14 20:44 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2027 (Main)