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Galactico Pegaso vs Vallecas CF

Spain Spain

Tercera Division - Group 7 2008/2009
Galactico Pegaso Logo

Galactico Pegaso

1 - 1
FT
Vallecas CF Logo

Vallecas CF

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Galactico Pegaso averaging 2.0 xG at home and Vallecas CF producing 1.2 xG on their travels. Both back lines have been leakier than usual lately, which points to an open game with chances for both sides. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Galactico Pegaso
35%
Draws
40%
Vallecas CF
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Vallecas CF

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Galactico Pegaso picked up more points recently compared to Vallecas CF.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.98 vs 1.18 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Galactico Pegaso Clean Sheet 20%
Vallecas CF Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Galactico Pegaso Vallecas CF
Matches Played 32 33
Wins 6 9
Draws 4 8
Losses 22 16
Goals Scored 0.75 1.27
Goals Conceded 1.81 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.98 1.18
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

14.03.10 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Vallecas CF vs Galactico Pegaso
1:0
25.10.09 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Galactico Pegaso vs Vallecas CF
3:3
08.04.09 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Galactico Pegaso vs Vallecas CF
1:1
30.11.08 Tercera RFEF - Group 7
Vallecas CF vs Galactico Pegaso
0:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Galactico Pegaso

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Dangerous on corners
  • ✓ Overlap on the wings
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Vulnerable to counters
  • ✗ Weak in the air

Vallecas CF

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • ✓ Quick recovery
  • ✓ Solid midfield screen
  • ✓ Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • ✗ Fouling under pressure
  • ✗ Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Galactico Pegaso Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
12 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
9 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.22

Vallecas CF Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
9 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
6 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.29
Avg xA / game 0.86

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Vallecas CF • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Galactico Pegaso • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Vallecas CF • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Galactico Pegaso • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Galactico Pegaso 27 / 100
Vallecas CF 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Galactico Pegaso Vallecas CF

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Vallecas CF or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Galactico Pegaso will likely press early to force mistakes.

Galactico Pegaso 59%
Vallecas CF 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Vallecas CF should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Galactico Pegaso 54%
Vallecas CF 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Galactico Pegaso 51%
Vallecas CF 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Galactico Pegaso to push more players wide.

Galactico Pegaso 56%
Vallecas CF 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Galactico Pegaso 51%
Vallecas CF 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Galactico Pegaso 62%
Vallecas CF 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Galactico Pegaso attacking → ← attacking Vallecas CF

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Galactico Pegaso have scored in 88% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Vallecas CF concede most goals (49%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 25 shots per game, well above the league median.

Galactico Pegaso are unbeaten in 7 straight matches when scoring first.

Vallecas CF have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Galactico Pegaso wants a European spot, while Vallecas CF is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

22 Points in last 5 35
1.98 Goals expected (xG) 1.18
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2