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Gambia vs Somalia

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations
Gambia Logo

Gambia

Wed, Sep 23, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Somalia Logo

Somalia

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Africa Cup of Nations. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Gambia have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.59 conceded recently, against Somalia's 0.43 scored and 1.63 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. Model xG sits at 1.81 vs 0.81, favoring Gambia. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Gambia
20%
Draws
57%
Somalia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Somalia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

23% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Gambia come out ahead of Somalia on wins alone.
  • 23% — that's where the model lands on Gambia taking it.
  • Gambia have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • These two have never met before — a fresh matchup with no historical pattern to lean on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Gambia Clean Sheet 20%
Somalia Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gambia Somalia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 4
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 21
Goals Scored 1.55 0.43
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gambia 49 / 100
Somalia 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gambia Somalia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gambia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gambia scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Somalia let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Recent resilience: Gambia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Somalia's recent record shows 1 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gambia VS Somalia
2.25 Goals Scored 0.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gambia

(Home)
29 May
Iran
3 : 1
Gambia
31 Mar
Senegal
3 : 1
Gambia
18 Nov
Kuwait
2 : 2
Gambia
14 Oct
Seychelles
0 : 7
Gambia
10 Oct
Gambia
3 : 4
Gabon
Page 1 of 6

Somalia

(Away)
31 Mar
Mauritius
0 : 1
Somalia
27 Mar
Somalia
0 : 0
Mauritius
26 Nov
Oman
1 : 0
Somalia
21 Nov
Bahrain
0 : 1
Somalia
17 Nov
Bahrain
1 : 2
Somalia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Morocco 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Lesotho 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Gabon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Niger 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Malawi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Egypt 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Angola 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 South Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ghana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Gambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Ivory Coast 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Somalia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kenya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 South Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Eritrea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sierra Leone 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Equatorial Guinea 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Zimbabwe 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 D.R. Congo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mauritania 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Burkina Faso 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Benin 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Central Africa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Namibia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Cameroon 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Congo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Comoros 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Libya 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Tunisia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Botswana 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Uganda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Algeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Burundi 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Zambia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Togo 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ethiopia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Senegal 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Mozambique 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Sudan 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cape Verde 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Liberia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Rwanda 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Mali 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)

League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tanzania 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Nigeria 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Madagascar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Guinea Bissau 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Africa Cup of Nations (Main)