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Gancabasar vs Shimal

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Gancabasar Logo

Gancabasar

2 - 3
FT
Shimal Logo

Shimal

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Achimi D.
55' Event
Achimi D.
56' Event
Osmanov N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Gancabasar and Shimal finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shimal.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Gancabasar
15%
Draws
37%
Shimal
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gancabasar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Shimal haven't matched Gancabasar's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Gancabasar's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular I Liqa 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Gancabasar Clean Sheet 17%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gancabasar Shimal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 3 5
Losses 17 19
Goals Scored 1.57 0.9
Goals Conceded 2 2.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Gancabasar
1:2
May 21, 2026 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Shimal
2:3
Feb 24, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Gancabasar
3:2
Nov 20, 2025 I Liqa
Gancabasar vs Shimal
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gancabasar Compare

Top Goalscorer Achimi D.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Shykhamirov N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Osmanov N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gancabasar 66 / 100
Shimal 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gancabasar Shimal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gancabasar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Shimal conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Gancabasar scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Recent resilience: Gancabasar stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gancabasar VS Shimal
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gancabasar

(Home)
17 Sept
Mingachevir
0 : 3
Gancabasar
10 Sept
Gancabasar
2 : 1
FC Khankendi
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
15 May
Safa Baku
1 : 0
Gancabasar
Page 1 of 6

Shimal

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)