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Garden Village vs Aberdare Town

Wales Wales

Division 1 2015/2016
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Garden Village play Aberdare Town in the Division 1 2015/2016. It looks like a close match. Recently, Garden Village averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. Aberdare Town averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. In past meetings, Garden Village won 0, Aberdare Town won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 30, 2016 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.48 for Garden Village and 1.31 for Aberdare Town. This points to a Garden Village double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Garden Village
17%
Draws
39%
Aberdare Town
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Garden Village

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Garden Village picked up more points recently compared to Aberdare Town.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.48 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Over 3.5 Goals 40%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%
Garden Village Clean Sheet 18%
Aberdare Town Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Garden Village Aberdare Town
Matches Played 21 30
Wins 9 10
Draws 3 4
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.52 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.87

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2016 Division 1
Garden Village vs Aberdare Town
0:1
Aug 22, 2015 Division 1
Aberdare Town vs Garden Village
5:4
Mar 21, 2015 Division 1
Garden Village vs Aberdare Town
2:3
Aug 16, 2014 Division 1
Aberdare Town vs Garden Village
3:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Garden Village 43 / 100
Aberdare Town 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Garden Village Aberdare Town

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Garden Village or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +22.3%
2.78
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.64
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Garden Village attacking → ← attacking Aberdare Town

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Garden Village scored in 71% of their last 21 games.

Aberdare Town let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.25 goals.

Garden Village went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Aberdare Town lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

30 Points in last 5 34
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cardiff Metropolitan University30195663:2662
2Barry Town301610462:3358
3Goytre AFC30175872:3656
4Caerau Ely301551059:4350
5Cambrian United301551048:3950
6Taffs Well301451157:5147
7Goytre Utd301341345:4743
8Afan Lido301191053:5342
9Ton Pentre301241445:5240
10Risca United301231548:4839
11Penybont301161353:5639
12Monmouth301091156:6039
13Briton Ferry301091141:4939
14Aberdare Town301141534:5637
15Aberbargoed Buds30831942:6327
16Garden Village30142527:937