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Gaviao vs Atletico Paraense

Brazil Brazil

Paraense A3 2025
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AI Match Summary

Atletico Paraense in this Paraense A3 2025 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gaviao
20%
Draws
33%
Atletico Paraense
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Gaviao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Atletico Paraense have won more games recently than Gaviao.
  • Model gives Gaviao a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Atletico Paraense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Atletico Paraense, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Atletico Paraense here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Gaviao Clean Sheet 10%
Atletico Paraense Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gaviao Atletico Paraense
Matches Played 23 13
Wins 6 10
Draws 7 1
Losses 10 2
Goals Scored 1 2.15
Goals Conceded 1.61 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2025 Paraense A3
Atletico Paraense vs Gaviao
3:1
Nov 14, 2025 Paraense A3
Gaviao vs Atletico Paraense
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 Paraense A3
Atletico Paraense vs Gaviao
3:0
Oct 5, 2025 Paraense A3
Gaviao vs Atletico Paraense
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gaviao 65 / 100
Atletico Paraense 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gaviao Atletico Paraense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gaviao Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gaviao found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (23 games).

Historical meetings average 2.75 goals per match.

Gaviao went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Atletico Paraense has conceded goals in 46% of their last 13 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gaviao VS Atletico Paraense
1.25 Goals Scored 2.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gaviao

(Home)
02 Oct
Gaviao
1 : 0
Belenense
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
Altamira
0 : 1
Gaviao
16 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 2
Parauapebas
11 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 0
Altamira
Page 1 of 5

Atletico Paraense

(Away)
23 May
Itupiranga
4 : 1
Atletico Paraense
16 May
Atletico Paraense
0 : 2
Carajas
02 May
Atletico Paraense
1 : 0
Itupiranga
25 Apr
Carajas
0 : 0
Atletico Paraense
25 Nov
Atletico Paraense
1 : 0
Santos PA
Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Gaviao 2
Sport Belem 1
Tesla 1
Atletico Paraense 12
Paraense SC 3
Santos PA 4
Venus 2
Belenense 3
Semi-finals
Gaviao 2
Atletico Paraense 5
Santos PA 5
Belenense 4
Final
Atletico Paraense 1
Santos PA 0