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Gaviao vs Independente - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Paraense 2021
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Barreto Queiroz R.
(Penalty)
57' Event
Danrlei
90'
Vioto Rafael

AI Match Summary

Independente in this Campeonato Paraense 2021 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independente.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Gaviao
30%
Draws
31%
Independente
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gaviao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Independente lately — more wins on the board than Gaviao.
  • Gaviao are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Regular Campeonato Paraense 2021 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Gaviao Clean Sheet 18%
Independente Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gaviao Independente
Matches Played 23 31
Wins 6 10
Draws 7 12
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.04 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 14, 2021 Paraense
Gaviao vs Independente
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gaviao Compare

Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

Independente Compare

Top Goalscorer Danrlei
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gaviao 41 / 100
Independente 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gaviao Independente

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gaviao scored in 74% of their last 23 games.

Independente's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Gaviao went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gaviao VS Independente
1 Goals Scored 1.33
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.67
63% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Gaviao

(Home)
02 Oct
Gaviao
2 : 0
Belenense
28 Sept
Belenense
1 : 0
Gaviao
20 Sept
Altamira
0 : 1
Gaviao
16 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 2
Parauapebas
11 Sept
Gaviao
2 : 0
Altamira
Page 1 of 5

Independente

(Away)
07 Jun
Independente
0 : 0
Itupiranga
04 Jun
Itupiranga
1 : 0
Independente
30 May
Independente
3 : 0
Uniao Paraense
13 May
Izabelense
1 : 2
Independente
09 May
Uniao Paraense
1 : 1
Independente
Page 1 of 7

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paysandu PA 8 6 1 1 12:6 19
2 Itupiranga 8 3 2 3 4:5 11
3 Bragantino PA 8 1 5 2 15:16 8
4 Gaviao 8 0 3 5 8:21 3
Promotion - Campeonato Paraense 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Remo 8 6 2 0 18:9 20
2 Tuna Luso 8 3 3 2 20:13 12
3 Marajo 8 1 4 3 7:9 7
4 Carajas 8 1 2 5 5:11 5
Promotion - Campeonato Paraense 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independente 8 3 4 1 10:6 13
2 Castanhal 8 2 5 1 11:9 11
3 Aguia De Maraba 8 1 5 2 6:7 8
4 Paragominas 8 1 4 3 10:14 7
Promotion - Campeonato Paraense 2021 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams