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GD Alcochetense vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Amaro M.

AI Match Summary

GD Alcochetense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored GD Alcochetense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
GD Alcochetense
20%
Draws
33%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to GD Alcochetense lately — more wins on the board than Lagoa.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 20%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Alcochetense Lagoa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs GD Alcochetense
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Lagoa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Alcochetense Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaro M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Alcochetense 32 / 100
Lagoa 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Alcochetense Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lagoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

GD Alcochetense found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Solid form: GD Alcochetense remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

GD Alcochetense VS Lagoa
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Alcochetense

(Home)
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Oriental
04 Apr
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Alcochetense
28 Mar
GD Alcochetense
0 : 1
Louletano
22 Mar
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
O Elvas CAD
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Lagoa

(Away)
18 Apr
Lagoa
1 : 2
GD Alcochetense
12 Apr
Portimonense B
1 : 3
Lagoa
04 Apr
Oriental
0 : 2
Lagoa
22 Mar
Lagoa
0 : 0
Malveira
15 Mar
Alverca B
2 : 1
Lagoa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)