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GD Alcochetense vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
GD Alcochetense Logo

GD Alcochetense

1 - 0
FT
Lagoa Logo

Lagoa

Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Amaro M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Alcochetense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored GD Alcochetense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
GD Alcochetense
35%
Draws
20%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: GD Alcochetense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to GD Alcochetense lately — more wins on the board than Lagoa.
  • Model gives GD Alcochetense a 45% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
GD Alcochetense Clean Sheet 68%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Alcochetense Lagoa
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.56 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs GD Alcochetense
1:2
Dec 20, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Alcochetense vs Lagoa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Alcochetense Compare

Top Goalscorer Amaro M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lagoa Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Alcochetense 95 / 100
Lagoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Alcochetense Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Alcochetense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Alcochetense's goal record stands at 84% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Solid form: GD Alcochetense remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Lagoa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

GD Alcochetense VS Lagoa
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Alcochetense

(Home)
27 Sept
Aljustrelense
0 : 2
GD Alcochetense
20 Sept
GD Alcochetense
2 : 0
C.F. Benfica
13 Sept
GD Alcochetense
1 : 1
Imortal
06 Sept
GD Alcochetense
8 : 0
Fayal
23 Aug
GD Alcochetense
2 : 2
Portel
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Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)