Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023

Mortagua FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

GD Coruchense play Mortagua FC in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2022/2023. It looks like a close match. Recently, GD Coruchense averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Mortagua FC averaged 1.05 goals scored and 1.02 conceded. In past meetings, GD Coruchense won 1, Mortagua FC won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 8, 2023 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.42 for GD Coruchense and 1.18 for Mortagua FC. This points to a Mortagua FC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%

GD Coruchense

27%

Draws

39%

Mortagua FC

Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Mortagua FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

GD Coruchense picked up more points recently compared to Mortagua FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.42 vs 1.18 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 67%

Over 2.5 Goals 42%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 13%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%

GD Coruchense Clean Sheet 20%

Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 60%

Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	GD Coruchense	Mortagua FC
Matches Played	30	40
Wins	10	18
Draws	9	10
Losses	11	12
Goals Scored	1.3	1.05
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.02

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 8, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

GD Coruchense vs Mortagua FC

Possession: 45% - 49% Cards: 4 - 4

2:4

Dec 18, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C

Mortagua FC vs GD Coruchense

Possession: 49% - 53% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Coruchense 35 / 100

Mortagua FC 37 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

GD Coruchense Mortagua FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Mortagua FC or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +30.9%

3.85

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +16.8%

2.78

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

GD Coruchense attacking → ← attacking Mortagua FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Coruchense scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Mortagua FC let in goals in 60% of their last 40 matches.

Games between these two average 4.50 goals.

GD Coruchense went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Mortagua FC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 64

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	1º Dezembro	25	15	5	5	37:19	50
2	Pero Pinheiro	25	15	7	4	34:24	49
3	Santarem	25	13	9	3	40:14	48
4	Marinhense	25	12	6	7	31:24	42
5	SB Castelo Branco	25	10	10	5	33:27	40
6	Mortagua FC	25	9	9	7	41:38	36
7	Sertanense	25	9	9	7	30:25	36
8	Sintrense	25	10	9	7	34:25	36
9	GD Coruchense	25	8	9	9	30:28	30
10	Uniao Da Serra	25	9	3	13	31:40	30
11	GS Loures	25	6	7	12	26:41	25
12	Arronches Benfica	25	5	4	16	15:39	19
13	Alcains	25	4	2	19	23:47	14
14	Rio Maior SC	0	1	0	12	0:0	0