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GD Fontinhas vs Marinhense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Furtado E.
45' Event
Moniz D.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
GD Fontinhas
30%
Draws
8%
Marinhense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: GD Fontinhas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Marinhense haven't matched GD Fontinhas's recent run of results.
  • GD Fontinhas are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
GD Fontinhas Clean Sheet 68%
Marinhense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Fontinhas Marinhense
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 12 9
Draws 5 10
Losses 13 13
Goals Scored 1 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.35 0.68
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 30, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs GD Fontinhas
3:1
Feb 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Fontinhas vs Marinhense
1:1
Mar 6, 2022 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Marinhense vs GD Fontinhas
2:3
Nov 21, 2021 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
GD Fontinhas vs Marinhense
3:1
Apr 19, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Marinhense vs GD Fontinhas
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Fontinhas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68

Marinhense Compare

Top Goalscorer Furtado E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Fontinhas 95 / 100
Marinhense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Fontinhas Marinhense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GD Fontinhas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Fontinhas found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Marinhense conceded in 72% of 32 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: GD Fontinhas stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Marinhense
0 Goals Scored 0.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.5
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Fontinhas

(Home)
07 Apr
Sertanense
0 : 0
GD Fontinhas
30 Mar
Marinhense
3 : 1
GD Fontinhas
24 Mar
GD Fontinhas
2 : 0
Tomar
17 Mar
Alverca B
0 : 1
GD Fontinhas
09 Mar
GD Fontinhas
0 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 6

Marinhense

(Away)
18 Apr
Oliveira Hospital
3 : 0
Marinhense
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Uniao Da Serra
1 : 0
Marinhense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santarem 26 17 4 5 52:23 55
2 SC Lusitania 26 15 6 5 40:22 51
3 Marinhense 26 15 5 6 43:26 50
4 Alverca B 26 11 6 9 34:19 39
5 Uniao de Coimbra 26 11 5 10 30:26 38
6 SB Castelo Branco 26 10 7 9 34:29 37
7 GD Peniche 26 11 4 11 28:39 37
8 Sertanense 26 10 7 9 26:25 37
9 Mortagua FC 26 10 7 9 30:36 37
10 GD Fontinhas 26 9 5 12 23:32 32
11 CD Rabo Peixe 26 8 6 12 30:34 28
12 Vitoria Sernache 26 5 10 11 17:30 25
13 CD Gouveia 26 5 6 15 35:48 21
14 Tomar 26 5 2 19 20:53 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Promotion Group 2023/2024 (Main)