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GD Peniche vs Lajense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Baptista M.
30' Event
Freitas B.
62' Event
Nico

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
GD Peniche
15%
Draws
59%
Lajense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lajense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to GD Peniche lately — more wins on the board than Lajense.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
GD Peniche Clean Sheet 11%
Lajense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Peniche Lajense
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 7 9
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.57 1.45
Goals Conceded 1.7 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Peniche vs Lajense
2:2
Sep 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Lajense vs GD Peniche
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GD Peniche Compare

Top Goalscorer Baptista M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Correia T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Lajense Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nico
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Peniche 30 / 100
Lajense 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Peniche Lajense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lajense conceded in 90% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 4.50 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: GD Peniche scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: GD Peniche remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

GD Peniche VS Lajense
1.88 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Peniche

(Home)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
Uniao Da Serra
3 : 1
GD Peniche
04 Apr
GD Peniche
0 : 2
SB Castelo Branco
29 Mar
Samora Correia
5 : 2
GD Peniche
22 Mar
Electrico FC
4 : 2
GD Peniche
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Lajense

(Away)
20 Sept
AD Fafe
4 : 0
Lajense
13 Sept
Real SC
5 : 5
Lajense
06 Sept
Lajense
0 : 1
Vitoria Setubal
18 Apr
Lajense
1 : 0
Os Marialvas
12 Apr
Marinhense
4 : 5
Lajense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)