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GD Sourense vs Mortagua FC

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018 game between GD Sourense and Mortagua FC finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward GD Sourense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
GD Sourense
40%
Draws
29%
Mortagua FC
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mortagua FC come out ahead of GD Sourense on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 35%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
GD Sourense Clean Sheet 20%
Mortagua FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Sourense Mortagua FC
Matches Played 30 36
Wins 3 17
Draws 8 7
Losses 19 12
Goals Scored 0 1.25
Goals Conceded 0 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 11, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
GD Sourense vs Mortagua FC
2:1
Sep 30, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Mortagua FC vs GD Sourense
2:0
Apr 12, 2015 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Mortagua FC vs GD Sourense
0:0
Feb 15, 2015 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
GD Sourense vs Mortagua FC
1:2
Nov 16, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group E
Mortagua FC vs GD Sourense
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Sourense 32 / 100
Mortagua FC 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Sourense Mortagua FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

GD Sourense scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Mortagua FC let in goals in 64% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Away concern: Mortagua FC has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

- VS Mortagua FC
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Sourense

(Home)
31 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
1 : 0
GD Sourense
22 Apr
GD Sourense
1 : 2
Marinhense
15 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
3 : 2
GD Sourense
08 Apr
GD Sourense
1 : 2
Maritimo B
31 Mar
Fornos de Algodres
1 : 1
GD Sourense
Page 1 of 6

Mortagua FC

(Away)
18 Apr
Mortagua FC
2 : 1
Electrico FC
12 Apr
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Mortagua FC
04 Apr
Mortagua FC
0 : 2
Os Marialvas
29 Mar
Mortagua FC
1 : 0
Marinhense
22 Mar
Naval 1893
2 : 0
Mortagua FC
Page 1 of 8

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Leiria30234368:2173
2Lusitano FCV30205547:1965
3SB Castelo Branco30178548:2359
4Sertanense30158751:2253
5Agueda30147939:3249
6Gafanha30139836:2348
7Anadia301210839:2846
8Maritimo B301431344:3045
9Nogueirense301191037:3842
10Oleiros301261235:3642
11Marinhense301181143:4141
12Mortagua FC301131623:4036
13Ferreira de Aves30921934:6929
14Aguias do Moradal30561929:5421
15GD Sourense30381928:5717
16Fornos de Algodres30042615:834
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)