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GD Varandinha vs Ultramarina - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

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Campeonato Nacional 2022
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AI Match Summary

The Campeonato Nacional 2022 game between GD Varandinha and Ultramarina finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward GD Varandinha.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
GD Varandinha
30%
Draws
47%
Ultramarina
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ultramarina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Ultramarina carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
GD Varandinha Clean Sheet 14%
Ultramarina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GD Varandinha Ultramarina
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 8 6
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2022 Campeonato Nacional
GD Varandinha vs Ultramarina
1:0
May 14, 2022 Campeonato Nacional
Ultramarina vs GD Varandinha
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GD Varandinha 31 / 100
Ultramarina 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GD Varandinha Ultramarina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ultramarina let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: GD Varandinha scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Difficult form: Ultramarina registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

GD Varandinha VS Ultramarina
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

GD Varandinha

(Home)
15 Jun
GD Varandinha
1 : 2
Morabeza
09 Jun
Palmeira
4 : 0
GD Varandinha
26 May
GD Varandinha
2 : 3
Barreirense
18 May
Barreirense
3 : 1
GD Varandinha
11 May
GD Varandinha
2 : 2
Palmeira
Page 1 of 6

Ultramarina

(Away)
24 May
Ultramarina
0 : 0
Sanjoanenses
18 May
Boavista da Praia
3 : 0
Ultramarina
11 May
Ultramarina
1 : 1
Academica Praia
02 May
Palmeira
3 : 0
Ultramarina
26 Apr
Mindelense
2 : 1
Ultramarina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rosariense 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
2 Sporting Praia 6 3 0 3 10:10 9
3 GD Varandinha 6 2 1 3 4:5 7
4 Ultramarina 6 1 0 5 3:11 3
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Palmeira 6 4 1 1 10:5 13
2 Academica Boavista 6 2 2 2 2:5 8
3 Morabeza 6 1 3 2 5:4 6
4 Academica Porto Novo 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Academica do Mindelo 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
2 Botafogo 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
3 Mindelense 6 2 1 3 3:6 7
4 Barreirense 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
Promotion - Campeonato Nacional 2022 (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams