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Gela vs Paterno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Bollino M.
(Penalty)
39' Event
Romano A.
45' Event
Maltese D.

AI Match Summary

Gela in this Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Gela
30%
Draws
23%
Paterno
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gela lately — more wins on the board than Paterno.
  • Win probability leans Gela's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Gela Clean Sheet 68%
Paterno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gela Paterno
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 4
Draws 4 5
Losses 16 21
Goals Scored 1.13 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.47 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gela vs Paterno
2:1
Nov 16, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs Gela
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gela Compare

Top Goalscorer Maltese D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Paterno Compare

Top Goalscorer Romano A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gela 95 / 100
Paterno 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gela Paterno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gela Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paterno let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Gela's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Paterno's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Gela VS Paterno
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gela

(Home)
03 May
Gelbison
1 : 0
Gela
26 Apr
Gela
1 : 1
Vibonese
19 Apr
Castrumfavara
3 : 1
Gela
12 Apr
Gela
0 : 0
Reggina
02 Apr
Nissa
1 : 0
Gela
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Paterno

(Away)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)