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Gelbison vs Lamezia

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Semeraro F.
90' Event
Bruno Cosendey

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Gelbison and Lamezia finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Gelbison
30%
Draws
39%
Lamezia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lamezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Gelbison carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 17%
Lamezia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gelbison Lamezia
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 10
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.28 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Lamezia
1:1
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Gelbison
0:1
Feb 14, 2016 Serie D - Group I
Lamezia vs Gelbison
1:0
Oct 14, 2015 Serie D - Group I
Gelbison vs Lamezia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gelbison Compare

Top Goalscorer Semeraro F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Lamezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Bruno Cosendey
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gelbison 36 / 100
Lamezia 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gelbison Lamezia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lamezia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gelbison scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Lamezia let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.25 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Gelbison stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Gelbison VS Lamezia
0.88 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gelbison

(Home)
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
13 Sept
Trastevere Calcio
2 : 1
Gelbison
06 Sept
Gelbison
0 : 0
Afragolese
11 Aug
Nocerina
3 : 0
Gelbison
Page 1 of 6

Lamezia

(Away)
20 Sept
Lamezia
0 : 3
Reggina
16 Sept
USD Ragusa
1 : 1
Lamezia
12 Sept
Lamezia
2 : 2
Igea Virtus
06 Sept
Nissa
3 : 1
Lamezia
03 May
Lamezia
4 : 1
Igea Virtus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)