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Gelbison vs US Venafro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group G
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Fruscella D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group G game between Gelbison and US Venafro finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward US Venafro.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Gelbison
15%
Draws
26%
US Venafro
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gelbison

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Gelbison carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Gelbison a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Gelbison Clean Sheet 20%
US Venafro Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gelbison US Venafro
Matches Played 30 6
Wins 17 1
Draws 6 1
Losses 7 4
Goals Scored 1.43 0.67
Goals Conceded 1 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 1.09 0.91
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 4, 2026 Serie D - Group G
Gelbison vs US Venafro
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gelbison Compare

Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.55

US Venafro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fruscella D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.51

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gelbison 58 / 100
US Venafro 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gelbison US Venafro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gelbison Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gelbison's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

US Venafro's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 6 matches.

Away concern: US Venafro has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Gelbison VS US Venafro
0.75 Goals Scored 0.57
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.43
50% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 29%
13% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Gelbison

(Home)
07 Oct
Lamezia
2 : 3
Gelbison
04 Oct
Gelbison
0 : 1
US Venafro
27 Sept
Paganese
2 : 3
Gelbison
20 Sept
Sarnese
3 : 1
Gelbison
16 Sept
Gelbison
2 : 1
Budoni Calcio
Page 1 of 6

US Venafro

(Away)
04 Oct
Gelbison
0 : 1
US Venafro
27 Sept
US Venafro
2 : 3
Budoni Calcio
20 Sept
Afragolese
4 : 0
US Venafro
16 Sept
US Venafro
0 : 1
Sarnese
13 Sept
Unipomezia
1 : 1
US Venafro
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sarnese 6 4 2 0 11:6 14
2 Monastir 6 4 1 1 17:9 13
3 Certosa V. Campagnano 6 4 0 2 10:4 12
4 Unipomezia 6 3 2 1 11:6 11
5 Ossese 6 3 2 1 9:5 11
6 Trastevere Calcio 6 3 2 1 8:10 11
7 Paganese 6 3 1 2 14:9 10
8 Anzio Calcio 1924 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Albalonga 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
10 Gelbison 6 2 1 3 7:9 7
11 Budoni Calcio 6 2 1 3 10:13 7
12 Citta di Anagni 6 2 1 3 7:10 7
13 Aranova 6 1 3 2 6:7 6
14 Afragolese 6 1 3 2 5:7 6
15 Sarrabus Ogliastra 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
16 Latte Dolce 6 1 2 3 7:11 5
17 US Venafro 6 1 1 4 4:10 4
18 Atl. Lodigiani 6 0 1 5 8:17 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group G (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group G (Play Out)