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Germany U21 vs Italy U21

Europe Europe

Euro U21 2025 MOL Aréna, Dunajská Streda
Sun, Jun 22, 2025
3 - 2
07:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Pirola L.
28'
Koleosho L.
58' Event
Koleosho L.

AI Match Summary

Germany U21 in this Euro U21 2025 tie, finishing 3-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Germany U21
15%
Draws
38%
Italy U21
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Germany U21

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Germany U21 lately — more wins on the board than Italy U21.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Germany U21 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Germany U21, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Germany U21 Clean Sheet 10%
Italy U21 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Germany U21 Italy U21
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 24 18
Draws 3 7
Losses 3 4
Goals Scored 2.9 2.38
Goals Conceded 0.9 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 22, 2025 Euro U21
Germany U21 vs Italy U21
3:2
Nov 19, 2022 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Germany U21
2:4
Nov 19, 2018 Friendly International
Italy U21 vs Germany U21
1:2
Jun 24, 2017 Euro U21
Italy U21 vs Germany U21
1:0
Mar 27, 2015 Friendly International
Germany U21 vs Italy U21
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Germany U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Woltemade N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Weiper N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Italy U21 Compare

Top Goalscorer Koleosho L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ambrosino G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Germany U21 30 / 100
Italy U21 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Germany U21 Italy U21

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Germany U21 scored in 93% of their last 30 games.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Solid form: Germany U21 remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Italy U21 has conceded goals in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Germany U21 VS Italy U21
3.13 Goals Scored 2.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Germany U21

(Home)
31 Mar
Greece U21
0 : 2
Germany U21
27 Mar
Germany U21
3 : 0
Northern Ireland U21
18 Nov
Georgia U21
0 : 2
Germany U21
14 Nov
Germany U21
6 : 0
Malta U21
14 Oct
Northern Ireland U21
1 : 2
Germany U21
Page 1 of 6

Italy U21

(Away)
08 Jun
Italy U21
1 : 0
Albania U21
31 Mar
Sweden U21
0 : 4
Italy U21
26 Mar
Italy U21
4 : 0
North Macedonia U21
18 Nov
Montenegro U21
1 : 4
Italy U21
14 Nov
Poland U21
2 : 1
Italy U21
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Spain U21 1
England U21 3
Portugal U21 0
Netherlands U21 1
Germany U21 3
Italy U21 2
Denmark U21 2
France U21 3
Semi-finals
England U21 2
Netherlands U21 1
Germany U21 3
France U21 0
Final
England U21 3
Germany U21 2