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Germany vs Hungary

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Merkur Spiel-Arena
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Germany play Hungary in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Germany averaged 2.55 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Hungary averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded. In past meetings, Germany won 2, Hungary won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 19, 2024 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.75 for Germany and 1.13 for Hungary. This points to a Germany double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Germany
26%
Draws
29%
Hungary
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Germany

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Germany picked up more points recently compared to Hungary.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.75 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Germany Clean Sheet 21%
Hungary Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Germany Hungary
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 19 12
Draws 4 8
Losses 6 10
Goals Scored 2.55 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 2.63 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 19, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Hungary vs Germany
1:1
Sep 7, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Hungary
5:0
Jun 19, 2024 Euro
Germany vs Hungary
2:0
Sep 23, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Germany vs Hungary
0:1
Jun 11, 2022 UEFA Nations League
Hungary vs Germany
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Germany Compare

Top Goalscorer Fullkrug N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Musiala J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31

Hungary Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Germany 45 / 100
Hungary 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Germany Hungary

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Germany or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Germany attacking → ← attacking Hungary

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Germany scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Hungary let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Germany went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Hungary lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

European tournament. Big stakes for both clubs, so expect a tense, high-pressure match.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 44
2.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
0.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Portugal642013:514
2Croatia62228:88
3Scotland62137:87
4Poland61149:164
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1France641112:613
2Italy641113:813
3Belgium61146:94
4Israel61145:134
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Germany642018:414
2Netherlands623113:79
3Hungary61324:116
4Bosnia & Herzegovina60244:172
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Spain651013:416
2Denmark62227:58
3Serbia61323:66
4Switzerland60246:142