Sport Picks
Ghiviborgo vs Montevarchi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group E 
Match Events
55'
55'
Bocci T.
65'
65'
Nannini D.
86'
86'
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group E game between Ghiviborgo and Montevarchi finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Montevarchi.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
20%
20%
60%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Montevarchi
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
60%
/ High Confidence
- Montevarchi carry the better recent record into this one.
- 60% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Montevarchi here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Ghiviborgo Clean Sheet 15%
Montevarchi Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ghiviborgo | Montevarchi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 31 |
| Wins | 4 | 11 |
| Draws | 8 | 13 |
| Losses | 17 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.66 | 0.74 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 18, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Montevarchi
0:3
Apr 26, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Ghiviborgo
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Montevarchi
0:2
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Ghiviborgo vs Montevarchi
0:1
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Montevarchi vs Ghiviborgo
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Ghiviborgo Compare
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Montevarchi Compare
Top Goalscorer Bocci T.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nannini D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ghiviborgo 35 / 100
Montevarchi 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ghiviborgo Montevarchi
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Montevarchi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 1.60 goals.
Montevarchi lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Attacking prowess: Ghiviborgo scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.
Montevarchi has conceded goals in 45% of their last 31 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ghiviborgo VS Montevarchi
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
2 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Ghiviborgo
(Home) 18 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Montevarchi
11 Oct
Scandicci
3 : 3 Ghiviborgo
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1 Tau
27 Sept
Prato
2 : 1 Ghiviborgo
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1 Mezzolara
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Montevarchi
04 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 1 Tau
20 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 1 Mezzolara
12 Sept
Ghiviborgo
1 : 3 Terranuova Traiana
02 May
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Grosseto
Page 1 of 3
Montevarchi
(Away) 18 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Montevarchi
11 Oct
Montevarchi
0 : 1 Rondinella
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1 Montevarchi
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0 SCD Progresso
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
Page 1 of 7
18 Oct
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Montevarchi
04 Oct
Ternana
4 : 1 Montevarchi
20 Sept
Siena
3 : 0 Montevarchi
16 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
1 : 1 Montevarchi
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1 Montevarchi
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Prato | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:5 | 18 |
| 2 | Follonica Gavorrano | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 11:5 | 16 |
| 3 | Seravezza Pozzi | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:5 | 14 |
| 4 | Lucchese | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | 14 |
| 5 | Siena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:10 | 13 |
| 6 | Tau | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:14 | 13 |
| 7 | Ternana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:8 | 12 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:9 | 12 |
| 9 | Terranuova Traiana | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Flaminia | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Montevarchi | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:12 | 10 |
| 13 | Mezzolara | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 7:9 | 9 |
| 14 | Rondinella | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | 9 |
| 15 | Sasso Marconi | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:13 | 8 |
| 16 | Grassina | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8:14 | 6 |
| 17 | SCD Progresso | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4:17 | 3 |
| 18 | Ghiviborgo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6:16 | 2 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)
