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Gibraltar vs San Marino

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Europa Sports Complex
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Tosi A.
15'
Valli Casadei M.
17'
De Barr T.

AI Match Summary

Gibraltar in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gibraltar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Gibraltar
6%
Draws
4%
San Marino
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Gibraltar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Gibraltar have won more games recently than San Marino.
  • Model gives Gibraltar a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26%
Gibraltar Clean Sheet 68%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gibraltar San Marino
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 4 2
Draws 5 3
Losses 19 25
Goals Scored 0.13 0.38
Goals Conceded 2.13 4.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.13 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 4.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Gibraltar
1:1
Oct 10, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Gibraltar vs San Marino
1:0
Nov 14, 2020 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Gibraltar
0:0
Sep 5, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Gibraltar vs San Marino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gibraltar Compare

Top Goalscorer Britto E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.1
Avg xA / game 0.07

San Marino Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gibraltar 95 / 100
San Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gibraltar San Marino

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GIB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: San Marino conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

San Marino's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Gibraltar found the back of the net in 36% of recent matches (28 games).

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Gibraltar VS San Marino
0.13 Goals Scored 0.38
2.13 Goals Conceded 4.13
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1San Marino42115:37
2Gibraltar41304:36
3Liechtenstein40223:62
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Moldova43015:19
2Malta42112:27
3Andorra40130:41