Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gibraltar vs San Marino

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Europa Sports Complex, Gibraltar
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Tosi A.
15'
Valli Casadei M.
17'
De Barr T.

AI Match Summary

Gibraltar in this UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gibraltar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Gibraltar
30%
Draws
8%
San Marino
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gibraltar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Gibraltar have won more games recently than San Marino.
  • Model gives Gibraltar a 62% chance of winning this.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.4%
Gibraltar Clean Sheet 68%
San Marino Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gibraltar San Marino
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 4 2
Draws 7 3
Losses 15 23
Goals Scored 0.65 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.62 2.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2024 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Gibraltar
1:1
Oct 10, 2024 UEFA Nations League
Gibraltar vs San Marino
1:0
Nov 14, 2020 UEFA Nations League
San Marino vs Gibraltar
0:0
Sep 5, 2020 UEFA Nations League
Gibraltar vs San Marino
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gibraltar Compare

Top Goalscorer Britto E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

San Marino Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gibraltar 95 / 100
San Marino 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gibraltar San Marino

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gibraltar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: San Marino conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

Recent resilience: Gibraltar stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: San Marino has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Gibraltar scored in 38% of their last 26 outings.

Scoring Trends

Gibraltar VS San Marino
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gibraltar

(Home)
27 Sept
Gibraltar
0 : 0
Andorra
23 Sept
Gibraltar
0 : 0
Sao Tome and Principe
06 Jun
Gibraltar
4 : 1
Cayman Islands
03 Jun
Gibraltar
4 : 0
British Virgin Islands
31 Mar
Latvia
1 : 0
Gibraltar
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San Marino

(Away)
26 Sept
San Marino
0 : 7
Finland
09 Jun
Azerbaijan
2 : 1
San Marino
05 Jun
San Marino
1 : 2
Bangladesh
31 Mar
San Marino
0 : 0
Andorra
28 Mar
San Marino
1 : 2
Faroe Islands
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 San Marino 4 2 1 1 5:3 7
2 Gibraltar 4 1 3 0 4:3 6
3 Liechtenstein 4 0 2 2 3:6 2
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League C)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League C/D)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Moldova 4 3 0 1 5:1 9
2 Malta 4 2 1 1 2:2 7
3 Andorra 4 0 1 3 0:4 1
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League C)
Promotion - UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 (Relegation - League C/D)