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Gibraltar vs Wales

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Friendly International 2024 Estadio Algarve
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AI Match Summary

Gibraltar play Wales in the Friendly International 2024. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gibraltar averaged 0.61 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. In past meetings, Gibraltar won 0, Wales won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 6, 2024 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for Gibraltar and 1.88 for Wales. This points to a Wales double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Gibraltar
26%
Draws
55%
Wales
Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

86% / Very High Confidence
  • Gibraltar picked up more points recently compared to Wales.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Gibraltar Clean Sheet 10%
Wales Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 60%
Second Half Goal 64%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gibraltar Wales
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 4 12
Draws 5 10
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.61 1.6
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 6, 2024 Friendly International
Gibraltar vs Wales
0:0
Oct 11, 2023 Friendly International
Wales vs Gibraltar
4:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gibraltar 19 / 100
Wales 53 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gibraltar Wales

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wales Win (2)
Secondary Pick Wales & Under 3.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +72.7%
9.09
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gibraltar attacking → ← attacking Wales

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gibraltar scored in 36% of their last 28 games.

Wales let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Gibraltar went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Wales lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Low
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Friendly match. Both teams will likely test tactics and rotate squads rather than push for a result.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

17 Points in last 5 46
0.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
2.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50