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Gimnasia Mendoza vs Nueva Chicago

Argentina Argentina

Copa Argentina 2025
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Gimnasia Mendoza play Nueva Chicago in the Copa Argentina 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Gimnasia Mendoza averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.03 conceded. Nueva Chicago averaged 0.75 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. In past meetings, Gimnasia Mendoza won 2, Nueva Chicago won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Sep 1, 2025 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Gimnasia Mendoza and 1.24 for Nueva Chicago. This points to a Gimnasia Mendoza double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Gimnasia Mendoza
31%
Draws
29%
Nueva Chicago
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Gimnasia Mendoza

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Gimnasia Mendoza picked up more points recently compared to Nueva Chicago.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.24 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Over 3.5 Goals 17%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%
Gimnasia Mendoza Clean Sheet 19%
Nueva Chicago Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gimnasia Mendoza Nueva Chicago
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 13 8
Draws 6 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 0.97 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.60 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 1, 2025 Primera Nacional
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Mendoza
1:1
Apr 27, 2025 Primera Nacional
Gimnasia Mendoza vs Nueva Chicago
1:1
Feb 12, 2025 Copa Argentina
Gimnasia Mendoza vs Nueva Chicago
2:0
Sep 29, 2024 Primera Nacional
Gimnasia Mendoza vs Nueva Chicago
2:1
May 12, 2024 Primera Nacional
Nueva Chicago vs Gimnasia Mendoza
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gimnasia Mendoza Compare

Top Goalscorer Munoz M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gonzalez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Nueva Chicago Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gimnasia Mendoza 40 / 100
Nueva Chicago 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gimnasia Mendoza Nueva Chicago

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Gimnasia Mendoza or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +26.1%
4.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Gimnasia Mendoza attacking → ← attacking Nueva Chicago

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Gimnasia Mendoza scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Nueva Chicago let in goals in 54% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Gimnasia Mendoza went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Nueva Chicago lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 34
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.60 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13