Sport Picks

Stadium Background

GKS Belchatow vs MKS Mlawa

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 GIEKSA Arena, Belchatow
Our Tip

Match Events

68'
Bartosinski J.
72' Event
Orzel A.
84'
Brysiak H.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 game between GKS Belchatow and MKS Mlawa finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward MKS Mlawa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
GKS Belchatow
6%
Draws
90%
MKS Mlawa
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: MKS Mlawa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and MKS Mlawa come out ahead of GKS Belchatow on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on MKS Mlawa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
GKS Belchatow Clean Sheet 10%
MKS Mlawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric GKS Belchatow MKS Mlawa
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 13
Draws 6 2
Losses 16 13
Goals Scored 1.5 2
Goals Conceded 2.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs MKS Mlawa
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 III Liga - Group I
MKS Mlawa vs GKS Belchatow
2:3
Nov 23, 2024 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs MKS Mlawa
6:2
Aug 3, 2024 III Liga - Group I
MKS Mlawa vs GKS Belchatow
0:0
Mar 16, 2024 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs MKS Mlawa
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

GKS Belchatow Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

MKS Mlawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Orzel A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

GKS Belchatow 10 / 100
MKS Mlawa 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
GKS Belchatow MKS Mlawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MLA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

MKS Mlawa has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: GKS Belchatow scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: GKS Belchatow remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

GKS Belchatow VS MKS Mlawa
1.5 Goals Scored 2
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

GKS Belchatow

(Home)
22 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 4
RKS Rakow Czestochowa II
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1
Tluchowo
11 Jul
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2
Polonia Nysa
30 May
Plock II
4 : 1
GKS Belchatow
23 May
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2
Jagiellonia II
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MKS Mlawa

(Away)
18 Jul
MKS Mlawa
3 : 2
DKS Dobre Miasto
18 Jul
MKS Mlawa
4 : 0
Sokol Ostroda
11 Jul
MKS Mlawa
5 : 2
Blonianka Blonie
03 Jul
Pruszkow
4 : 1
MKS Mlawa
30 May
LKS Lomza
2 : 1
MKS Mlawa
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Legia II34273482:2984
2LKS Lomza34225777:3171
3Warta Sieradz34218564:3471
4Suwalki34205964:4365
5Troszyn341761175:4757
6Plock II341681056:5156
7Widzew Lodz II341731470:6454
8Jagiellonia II341471346:4549
9Tomaszow Mazowiecki341381364:5547
10Zabkovia Zabki341351672:6444
11Swit Mazowiecki341251751:6641
12MKS Mlawa341171655:5940
13Olimpia Elblag341081645:6138
14GKS Wikielec341071740:5437
15Bron Radom34991640:5736
16GKS Belchatow34971850:7634
17Wasilkow34742340:7925
18Znicz Biala Piska34432727:10315
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)