Sport Picks
GKS Belchatow vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
Poland
III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 GIEKSA Arena, Belchatow 
Match Events
67'
67'
Krol J.
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
GKS Belchatow in this III Liga - Group I 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored GKS Belchatow.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
80%
11%
9%
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: GKS Belchatow
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
93%
/ Very High Confidence
- Tomaszow Mazowiecki have won more games recently than GKS Belchatow.
- GKS Belchatow are the model's pick here, at 80%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
GKS Belchatow Clean Sheet 10%
Tomaszow Mazowiecki Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | GKS Belchatow | Tomaszow Mazowiecki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 8 | 11 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 16 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.5 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 2.50 | 2.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2026 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1:0
Aug 31, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs GKS Belchatow
1:2
Apr 25, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs GKS Belchatow
1:0
Sep 29, 2024 III Liga - Group I
GKS Belchatow vs Tomaszow Mazowiecki
3:2
May 25, 2024 III Liga - Group I
Tomaszow Mazowiecki vs GKS Belchatow
5:1
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
GKS Belchatow 74 / 100
Tomaszow Mazowiecki 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
GKS Belchatow Tomaszow Mazowiecki
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick BEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Tomaszow Mazowiecki has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.
GKS Belchatow scored in 73% of their last 30 games.
Tomaszow Mazowiecki's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
GKS Belchatow VS Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0.75 Goals Scored 1.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
GKS Belchatow
(Home) 22 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 4 RKS Rakow Czestochowa II
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1 Tluchowo
11 Jul
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2 Polonia Nysa
30 May
Plock II
4 : 1 GKS Belchatow
23 May
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2 Jagiellonia II
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 4 RKS Rakow Czestochowa II
18 Jul
GKS Belchatow
4 : 1 Tluchowo
11 Jul
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2 Polonia Nysa
23 May
GKS Belchatow
1 : 2 Jagiellonia II
13 May
GKS Belchatow
1 : 3 Widzew Lodz II
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Tomaszow Mazowiecki
(Away) 11 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 3 Star Starachowice
04 Jul
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
1 : 4 Wda Swiecie
30 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
0 : 0 Olimpia Elblag
24 May
MKS Mlawa
3 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
17 May
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
2 : 0 Swit Mazowiecki
Page 1 of 6
24 May
MKS Mlawa
3 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
13 May
Troszyn
4 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
09 May
Plock II
2 : 2 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
18 Apr
LKS Lomza
1 : 1 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
04 Apr
Bron Radom
2 : 3 Tomaszow Mazowiecki
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia II | 34 | 27 | 3 | 4 | 82:29 | 84 |
| 2 | LKS Lomza | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 77:31 | 71 |
| 3 | Warta Sieradz | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 64:34 | 71 |
| 4 | Suwalki | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 64:43 | 65 |
| 5 | Troszyn | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 75:47 | 57 |
| 6 | Plock II | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 56:51 | 56 |
| 7 | Widzew Lodz II | 34 | 17 | 3 | 14 | 70:64 | 54 |
| 8 | Jagiellonia II | 34 | 14 | 7 | 13 | 46:45 | 49 |
| 9 | Tomaszow Mazowiecki | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 64:55 | 47 |
| 10 | Zabkovia Zabki | 34 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 72:64 | 44 |
| 11 | Swit Mazowiecki | 34 | 12 | 5 | 17 | 51:66 | 41 |
| 12 | MKS Mlawa | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 55:59 | 40 |
| 13 | Olimpia Elblag | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 45:61 | 38 |
| 14 | GKS Wikielec | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 40:54 | 37 |
| 15 | Bron Radom | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 40:57 | 36 |
| 16 | GKS Belchatow | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 50:76 | 34 |
| 17 | Wasilkow | 34 | 7 | 4 | 23 | 40:79 | 25 |
| 18 | Znicz Biala Piska | 34 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 27:103 | 15 |
Promotion - Division 2 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)