Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Glasgow City W vs Hearts W

Scotland Scotland

SWPL 1 Women 2025/2026 Petershill Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This looks like a tight matchup. Neither side is clearly dominant, with Glasgow City W averaging 1.1 xG at home and Hearts W producing 1.6 xG on their travels. Hearts W will likely drop deep and defend, forcing Glasgow City W to find a way to break them down. History suggests plenty of goals when these two play. Over 2.5 goals seems highly likely based on recent attacking form. Everything points to a very close contest where a draw wouldn't surprise anyone.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Glasgow City W
16%
Draws
43%
Hearts W
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Hearts W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Glasgow City W picked up more points recently compared to Hearts W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Over 3.5 Goals 37%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Glasgow City W Clean Sheet 14%
Hearts W Clean Sheet 13%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Glasgow City W Hearts W
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 20 23
Draws 8 1
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 2.43 3.84
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40
Possession % 53.5% 46.5%
Shots per Match 13.8 11.2
Shots on Target 4.8 3.6
Corners per Match 5.6 4.4
Yellow/Red Cards 1.8 2.2

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

17.05.26 SWPL 1 Women
Hearts W vs Glasgow City W
0:0
05.04.26 SWPL 1 Women
Glasgow City W vs Hearts W
0:1
21.12.25 SWPL 1 Women
Hearts W vs Glasgow City W
0:1
21.09.25 SWPL 1 Women
Glasgow City W vs Hearts W
5:1
18.05.25 SWPL 1 Women
Glasgow City W vs Hearts W
2:0

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Glasgow City W

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Dangerous on corners
  • Overlap on the wings
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Vulnerable to counters
  • Weak in the air

Hearts W

Pressing Intensity Passive low block (PPDA > 14)
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Sit deep
Strengths
  • Quick recovery
  • Solid midfield screen
  • Quick counters
Weaknesses
  • Fouling under pressure
  • Defending set pieces

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Glasgow City W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
7 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
5 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.7

Hearts W Compare

Top Goalscorer Key Forward
12 Goals
Assists Leader Midfield Maestro
9 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.19

Availability Alerts

Key Defender Hearts W • Hamstring Injury
Out Rating: 8.5
Starting Midfielder Glasgow City W • Ankle Sprain
Doubtful Rating: 6.8
Backup Goalkeeper Hearts W • Muscle strain
Out Rating: 3.2
Star Striker Glasgow City W • Returning to training
Returning Rating: 9.4

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Glasgow City W 40 / 100
Hearts W 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Glasgow City W Hearts W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Hearts W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11%
1.79
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Glasgow City W will likely press early to force mistakes.

Glasgow City W 59%
Hearts W 37%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

Hearts W should settle down and try to slow the pace.

Glasgow City W 54%
Hearts W 44%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

Both sides will look to break quickly before the half-time whistle.

Glasgow City W 51%
Hearts W 49%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Tactical adjustments will show. Expect Glasgow City W to push more players wide.

Glasgow City W 56%
Hearts W 44%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

Players will tire. Fresh legs from the bench will spark quicker counter-attacks.

Glasgow City W 51%
Hearts W 49%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

Late drama. Teams will take major risks depending on the scoreline.

Glasgow City W 62%
Hearts W 53%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Glasgow City W attacking → ← attacking Hearts W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Glasgow City W have scored in 88% of their home games in the past 12 months.

Hearts W concede most goals (43%) in the final 15 minutes of matches.

Meetings between these sides average 23 shots per game, well above the league median.

Glasgow City W are unbeaten in 6 straight matches when scoring first.

Hearts W have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 9 matches.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Both played three matches in ten days, so managers might rotate players.

Risk Factor

Incentive: Glasgow City W wants a European spot, while Hearts W is battling relegation.

Risk Factor

Cards: Historically tense game, a red card could change the whole setup.

Public Accuracy Dashboard

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Overall Accuracy 78.4%
BTTS Accuracy 73.1%
Over 2.5 Accuracy 75.6%
Correct Score Accuracy 18.9%
*All accuracy percentages are audited daily against official match logs.

Recent Predictions Log

Date Prediction Result Status
2026-07-05 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-07-01 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-27 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-23 Home Win (1) 1-1 Lost
2026-06-19 Over 2.5 Goals 3-1 Won
2026-06-15 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won
2026-06-11 Over 2.5 Goals 1-0 Lost
2026-06-07 Home Win (1) 2-0 Won

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

68 Points in last 5 70
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.10 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.40
53.5% Ball possession % 46.5%
13.8 Shots per game 11.2
4.8 Shots on target 3.6
5.6 Corners per game 4.4
1.8 Cards per game 2.2