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Glenavon vs Harland & Wolff - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Championship Mourneview Park, Lurgan
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Glenavon host Harland & Wolff in the NIFL Championship. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Glenavon have averaged 1.55 scored and 1.48 conceded recently, against Harland & Wolff's 2.09 scored and 1.64 conceded. Head-to-head, Glenavon have won 1 to Harland & Wolff's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 2, 2025, ending 3:0. xG projections (2.06 - 1.44) back Harland & Wolff to edge this. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Glenavon
15%
Draws
20%
Harland & Wolff
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Glenavon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Harland & Wolff carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 65% — that's where the model lands on Glenavon taking it.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this NIFL Championship fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 16%
Harland & Wolff Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Glenavon Harland & Wolff
Matches Played 31 33
Wins 11 14
Draws 7 4
Losses 13 15
Goals Scored 1.55 2.09
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2025 Club Friendly
Harland & Wolff vs Glenavon
3:0
Aug 3, 2024 Club Friendly
Glenavon vs Harland & Wolff
1:4
Feb 4, 2023 Irish Cup
Glenavon vs Harland & Wolff
0:1
Jul 27, 2022 Club Friendly
Harland & Wolff vs Glenavon
1:2
Sep 22, 2020 Club Friendly
Harland & Wolff vs Glenavon
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Glenavon 84 / 100
Harland & Wolff 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Glenavon Harland & Wolff

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Glenavon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Glenavon found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Harland & Wolff has conceded goals in 76% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Glenavon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Glenavon VS Harland & Wolff
2.5 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Glenavon

(Home)
03 Oct
Moyola
0 : 3
Glenavon
25 Sept
Glenavon
4 : 1
Loughgall
19 Sept
Glenavon
1 : 0
Newington FC
12 Sept
Ballinamallard
1 : 1
Glenavon
05 Sept
Dundela
3 : 2
Glenavon
Page 1 of 7

Harland & Wolff

(Away)
03 Oct
Harland & Wolff
1 : 3
Rathfriland Rangers
25 Sept
Newry City
3 : 2
Harland & Wolff
19 Sept
Harland & Wolff
1 : 3
Ballinamallard
12 Sept
Annagh
3 : 1
Harland & Wolff
05 Sept
Moyola
1 : 4
Harland & Wolff
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Annagh 10 6 3 1 24:13 21
2 Glenavon 10 6 2 2 25:13 20
3 Newington FC 10 6 2 2 24:18 20
4 Queens University 10 6 1 3 20:7 19
5 Institute 10 5 1 4 20:17 16
6 Harland & Wolff 10 5 0 5 18:16 15
7 Newry City 10 4 3 3 16:18 15
8 Warrenpoint 10 4 2 4 18:15 14
9 Ballinamallard 10 4 2 4 16:16 14
10 Loughgall 10 3 4 3 14:19 13
11 Ards 10 3 3 4 12:13 12
12 Dundela 10 2 5 3 18:20 11
13 Moyola 10 3 2 5 10:20 11
14 Strabane Athletic 10 2 3 5 10:19 9
15 Rathfriland Rangers 10 2 0 8 9:22 6
16 Armagh 10 0 5 5 8:16 5
Promotion - NIFL Championship (Promotion Group)
Relegation - NIFL Championship (Relegation Group)