Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Glenavon vs Larne

Northern Ireland Northern Ireland

NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 Mourneview Park, Lurgan
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Sub
Murphy H. In: Quinn N.
Out: Murphy H.
62' Event
O'Neill P.
69' Event
Millar L.

AI Match Summary

The NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 game between Glenavon and Larne finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Larne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Glenavon
11%
Draws
80%
Larne
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Larne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Glenavon haven't matched Larne's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Larne's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Larne here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Glenavon Clean Sheet 10%
Larne Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Glenavon Larne
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 8 20
Draws 4 6
Losses 18 5
Goals Scored 0.57 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.86 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.57 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.86 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Larne
0:3
Nov 21, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Larne vs Glenavon
2:1
Sep 13, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Larne vs Glenavon
1:0
Mar 22, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Glenavon vs Larne
0:1
Feb 18, 2025 NIFL Premiership
Larne vs Glenavon
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Glenavon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.44
Avg xA / game 0.28

Larne Compare

Top Goalscorer O'Neill P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Millar L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Glenavon 10 / 100
Larne 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Glenavon Larne

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Glenavon scored in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Larne's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 31 matches.

Solid form: Glenavon remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Glenavon VS Larne
0.57 Goals Scored 1.88
1.86 Goals Conceded 0.88
71% Over 1.5 63%
29% Over 2.5 50%
29% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Glenavon

(Home)
21 Jul
Crusaders
2 : 0
Glenavon
16 Jul
Glenavon
0 : 5
Doncaster
25 Apr
Glenavon
2 : 3
Carrick Rangers
18 Apr
Glenavon
0 : 1
Crusaders
11 Apr
Bangor FC
0 : 0
Glenavon
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Larne

(Away)
21 Jul
Larne
0 : 4
Crvena zvezda
14 Jul
Larne
2 : 1
Tre Fiori
07 Jul
Tre Fiori
0 : 1
Larne
03 Jul
Larne
1 : 0
Coleraine
29 Jun
Harland & Wolff
1 : 2
Larne
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Larne33227460:2273
2Glentoran33216663:3069
3Coleraine33205862:3165
4Linfield33188756:2462
5Cliftonville331381249:4847
6Dungannon331511740:5846
7Carrick Rangers331271449:5143
8Bangor FC331061738:5736
9Portadown331131936:5736
10Ballymena33971739:5034
11Crusaders33752138:7226
12Glenavon33812433:6325
Promotion - NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 (Championship Group)
Relegation - NIFL Premiership 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)