Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Gnistan vs Mariehamn

Finland Finland

Veikkausliiga Markku.fi Areena, Helsinki
Our Tip

Match Events

6' Event
Ylatupa S.
Assist: Gnanou R.
23' Event
Eremenko R.
Penalty Missed
26'
Sub
Ngulube S. In: Soiniemi A.
Out: Ngulube S.

AI Match Summary

Gnistan in this Veikkausliiga matchup, with the score ending 4-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gnistan.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Gnistan
30%
Draws
35%
Mariehamn
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Gnistan have won more games recently than Mariehamn.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Gnistan have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Gnistan Clean Sheet 19%
Mariehamn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gnistan Mariehamn
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 9 5
Losses 8 17
Goals Scored 1.52 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
4:2
Jun 13, 2026 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Gnistan
0:3
Jan 30, 2026 Liiga Cup
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
2:2
Aug 9, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Mariehamn vs Gnistan
2:5
May 3, 2025 Veikkausliiga
Gnistan vs Mariehamn
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gnistan Compare

Top Goalscorer Akinyemi A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ylatupa S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Mariehamn Compare

Top Goalscorer Stroud A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Nunez W.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gnistan 32 / 100
Mariehamn 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gnistan Mariehamn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mariehamn let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.40 goals when they meet.

Gnistan has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Gnistan found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Scoring Trends

Gnistan VS Mariehamn
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Gnistan

(Home)
18 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
HJK
12 Sept
AC Oulu
1 : 2
Gnistan
08 Sept
Gnistan
1 : 1
KuPS
31 Aug
Gnistan
1 : 1
TPS
23 Aug
HJK
2 : 3
Gnistan
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Mariehamn

(Away)
18 Sept
SJK
2 : 1
Mariehamn
12 Sept
Mariehamn
1 : 0
TPS
08 Sept
Lahti
2 : 1
Mariehamn
31 Aug
Mariehamn
2 : 0
Jaro
23 Aug
KuPS
2 : 4
Mariehamn
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KuPS 22 12 7 3 38:23 43
2 Inter Turku 22 11 9 2 29:16 42
3 HJK 22 11 4 7 36:27 37
4 Gnistan 22 10 6 6 36:29 36
5 AC Oulu 22 10 4 8 25:25 34
6 VPS 22 9 6 7 29:22 33
7 Lahti 22 9 5 8 26:19 32
8 TPS 22 8 7 7 28:23 31
9 Ilves 22 7 4 11 34:37 25
10 SJK 22 4 7 11 25:33 19
11 Jaro 22 3 6 13 18:44 15
12 Mariehamn 22 3 5 14 17:43 14
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Relegation - Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)