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Goiania vs Itumbiara

Brazil Brazil

Goiano 2 2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Goiania play Itumbiara in the Goiano 2 2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Goiania averaged 0.82 goals scored and 1.58 conceded. Itumbiara averaged 1.06 goals scored and 2.39 conceded. In past meetings, Goiania won 3, Itumbiara won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 12, 2022 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.25 for Goiania and 1.25 for Itumbiara. This points to a Itumbiara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Goiania
15%
Draws
44%
Itumbiara
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Itumbiara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Goiania picked up more points recently compared to Itumbiara.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.25 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Goiania Clean Sheet 19%
Itumbiara Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Goiania Itumbiara
Matches Played 33 31
Wins 7 8
Draws 6 6
Losses 20 17
Goals Scored 0.82 1.06
Goals Conceded 1.58 2.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 3.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 12, 2022 Goiano 2
Goiania vs Itumbiara
0:2
Aug 28, 2022 Goiano 2
Itumbiara vs Goiania
0:2
Feb 23, 2019 Goiano
Goiania vs Itumbiara
1:0
Jan 27, 2019 Goiano
Itumbiara vs Goiania
0:1
Jul 24, 2011 Goiano 2
Itumbiara vs Goiania
1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Goiania 41 / 100
Itumbiara 42 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Goiania Itumbiara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Itumbiara or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +24.2%
3.03
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.33
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Goiania attacking → ← attacking Itumbiara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goiania scored in 55% of their last 33 games.

Itumbiara let in goals in 84% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.40 goals.

Goiania went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Itumbiara lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 30
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
1.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Inhumas1483317:727
2Goiania1481514:1125
3Anapolina1466216:1024
4Aparecida EC1454516:2019
5Associacao Esportiva Evangelica (ASEEV)1452723:2117
6Jaragua1444610:1216
7Itumbiara1444617:2216
8Cerrado EC142489:1910