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Goncalense vs Friburguense

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

63' Event
Matheus Goiano

AI Match Summary

Goncalense in this Carioca B1 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Goncalense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Goncalense
35%
Draws
38%
Friburguense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Friburguense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

38% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Goncalense lately — more wins on the board than Friburguense.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Goncalense Clean Sheet 26%
Friburguense Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Goncalense Friburguense
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 10 9
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 0.9 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.07 0.79
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Carioca B1
Goncalense vs Friburguense
1:0
Jul 4, 2023 Carioca 2
Goncalense vs Friburguense
2:1
Jun 1, 2022 Carioca 2
Friburguense vs Goncalense
0:0
Jun 12, 2021 Carioca 2
Friburguense vs Goncalense
3:1
Aug 10, 2019 Club Friendly
Goncalense vs Friburguense
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Goncalense Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Goiano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Friburguense Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Goncalense 33 / 100
Friburguense 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Goncalense Friburguense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Friburguense Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Goncalense scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Friburguense conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Goncalense stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Goncalense VS Friburguense
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
25% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Goncalense

(Home)
26 Sept
Goncalense
3 : 2
Audax RJ
19 Sept
Goytacaz
0 : 2
Goncalense
12 Sept
Goncalense
1 : 1
Niteroiense
05 Sept
Sao Cristovao
0 : 0
Goncalense
08 Nov
Goncalense
0 : 1
Campo Grande
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Friburguense

(Away)
27 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 2
Belford Roxo
20 Sept
Friburguense
2 : 0
Campos AA
13 Sept
Paraty
1 : 4
Friburguense
06 Sept
Friburguense
0 : 0
Barra Mansa
30 Aug
Serra Macaense
0 : 1
Friburguense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)