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Stadium Background

Gramadense vs Brasil de Pelotas

Brazil Brazil

Copa FGF
Our Tip

Match Events

48' Event
Kerlly

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Gramadense advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Gramadense
30%
Draws
34%
Brasil de Pelotas
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Gramadense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Gramadense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Gramadense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Gramadense have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Gramadense, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Gramadense Clean Sheet 68%
Brasil de Pelotas Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gramadense Brasil de Pelotas
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 12 11
Draws 11 11
Losses 4 6
Goals Scored 1.38 1.63
Goals Conceded 0.88 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 23, 2026 Copa FGF
Brasil de Pelotas vs Gramadense
2:2
Jul 12, 2026 Copa FGF
Gramadense vs Brasil de Pelotas
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gramadense Compare

Top Goalscorer Kerlly
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Brasil de Pelotas Compare

Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gramadense 46 / 100
Brasil de Pelotas 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gramadense Brasil de Pelotas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Gramadense stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Gramadense scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Brasil de Pelotas has conceded goals in 61% of their last 28 outings.

H2H data points to 2.50 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Gramadense VS Brasil de Pelotas
1.38 Goals Scored 1.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Gramadense

(Home)
23 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2
Gramadense
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
05 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 1
GE Bage
27 Jun
GE Bage
0 : 1
Gramadense
17 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
2 : 2
Gramadense
Page 1 of 6

Brasil de Pelotas

(Away)
23 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
2 : 2
Gramadense
12 Jul
Gramadense
1 : 0
Brasil de Pelotas
04 Jul
Brasil de Pelotas
1 : 0
Santa Cruz RS
27 Jun
Santa Cruz RS
1 : 1
Brasil de Pelotas
17 Jun
Guarany de Bage
3 : 3
Brasil de Pelotas
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Brasil de Pelotas2
Santa Cruz RS1
Gramadense2
GE Bage1
Final
Brasil de Pelotas2
Gramadense3