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Gran Pena vs Cambados

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Nunokawa G.
34' Event
Fontan Davila M.
40' Event
Eduardo A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Gran Pena and Cambados finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Gran Pena.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Gran Pena
15%
Draws
0%
Cambados
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Gran Pena carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Gran Pena's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%
Cambados Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Gran Pena Cambados
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 4
Draws 8 12
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.8 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Cambados
4:1
Nov 2, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Cambados vs Gran Pena
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Eduardo A.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Nunokawa G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Cambados Compare

Top Goalscorer Tavares A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Gran Pena 95 / 100
Cambados 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Gran Pena Cambados

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Gran Pena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Gran Pena scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Cambados let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Cambados's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Gran Pena VS Cambados
2 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Gran Pena

(Home)
26 Sept
Sarriana
3 : 2
Gran Pena
20 Sept
Gran Pena
0 : 0
Antela
13 Sept
Pontevedra B
1 : 2
Gran Pena
06 Sept
Gran Pena
1 : 2
Lalin
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
Page 1 of 6

Cambados

(Away)
10 May
Montaneros
4 : 1
Cambados
02 May
Cambados
0 : 2
Arosa SC
25 Apr
Atletico Arteixo
1 : 0
Cambados
19 Apr
Cambados
0 : 3
Noia
12 Apr
Racing Club Villalbes
2 : 0
Cambados
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)